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Searching for the parallel growth of cities

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  • Chen, Zhihong
  • Fu, Shihe
  • Zhang, Dayong

Abstract

Three urban growth theories predict parallel growth of cities. The endogenous growth theory predicts deterministic parallel growth; the random growth theory implies that city growth follows Gibrat’s law with a steady-state distribution; and the hybrid growth theory suggests the co-movement of random city growth. This paper uses the Chinese city size data from 1984-2006 and time series econometric techniques to test for parallel growth. The results from various types of stationarity tests on pooled heterogeneous cities show that city growth is random. However, once growth trend and structural change are taken into account, certain groups of cities with common group characteristics, such as similar natural resource endowment or policy regime, grow parallel.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Zhihong & Fu, Shihe & Zhang, Dayong, 2010. "Searching for the parallel growth of cities," MPRA Paper 21528, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:21528
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    Cited by:

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    2. Aurélie LALANNE & Martin ZUMPE, 2015. "Zipf’s law, Gibrat’s law and Cointegration," Cahiers du GREThA (2007-2019) 2015-27, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée (GREThA).
    3. Xin Lao & Tiyan Shen & Hengyu Gu, 2018. "Prospect on China’s Urban System by 2020: Evidence from the Prediction Based on Internal Migration Network," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(3), pages 1-21, February.
    4. Aurélie Lalanne & Martin Zumpe, 2020. "Time-Series Based Empirical Assessment of Random Urban Growth: New Evidence from France," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 18(4), pages 911-926, December.
    5. Fu, Shihe & Xu, Xiaocong & Zhang, Junfu, 2021. "Land conversion across cities in China," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    6. Aurélie, Lalanne & Martin, Zumpe, 2020. "From Gibrat’s law to Zipf’s law through cointegration?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    7. Aloysius Gunadi Brata & Henri L.F. de Groot & Piet Rietveld, 2013. "Dynamics in Aceh and North Sumatera after the Twin Disasters: An Investigation into the Relevance of the Locational Fundamental Theory," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-115/VIII, Tinbergen Institute.
    8. Wu, Jian-Xin & He, Ling-Yun, 2017. "How do Chinese cities grow? A distribution dynamics approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 470(C), pages 105-118.
    9. Chengri Ding & Zhi Li, 2019. "Size and urban growth of Chinese cities during the era of transformation toward a market economy," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 46(1), pages 27-46, January.
    10. Kuznetsov, Andrei & Dinwoodie, John & Gibbs, David & Sansom, Mark & Knowles, Harriet, 2015. "Towards a sustainability management system for smaller ports," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 59-68.
    11. Aloysius G. Brata & Henri L. F. de Groot & Piet Rietveld, 2014. "The Impact of the Indian Ocean Tsunami and the Nias Earthquake on the Spatial Distribution of Population in Northern Sumatra," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(1), pages 101-121, April.
    12. Chao Li & John Gibson, 2016. "Pareto's Law and City Size in China: Diverging Patterns in Land and People," Working Papers in Economics 16/09, University of Waikato.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Urban growth; Parallel growth; Zipf’s law; Unit root; Structural change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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