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Urban growth in the long term: Belgium, 1880–1970

Author

Listed:
  • Rafael González-Val

    (Universidad de Zaragoza
    Institut d’Economia de Barcelona (IEB))

  • Arturo Ramos

    (Universidad de Zaragoza)

  • Samuel Standaert

    (Institute on Comparative Regional Integration Studies, United Nations University
    Ghent University)

Abstract

We take advantage of a new data set on Belgian cities to test random growth, that is, Gibrat’s law. This unique data set provides annual population estimates for all Belgian municipalities (2680 cities) from 1880 to 1970. The use of panel data methodology and unit root tests can provide a precise test of Gibrat’s law (a unit root is equivalent to random growth). We run both time series and panel data unit root tests, thus obtaining strong support for random growth in the long term. Results hold when allowing for the presence of one and two structural breaks in the mean, with the timing of the breaks coinciding with some major historical events, such as the World Wars and the economic crisis of 1929–1933.

Suggested Citation

  • Rafael González-Val & Arturo Ramos & Samuel Standaert, 2024. "Urban growth in the long term: Belgium, 1880–1970," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 72(3), pages 881-902, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:anresc:v:72:y:2024:i:3:d:10.1007_s00168-023-01226-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s00168-023-01226-1
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    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • N93 - Economic History - - Regional and Urban History - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)

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