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Secular Stagnation: Determinants and Consequences for Australia

Author

Listed:
  • Grace Taylor
  • Rod Tyers

Abstract

Larry Summers’ re-use of the phrase appears justified in the present global economic climate since many factors contribute to comparatively poor OECD economic performance and weakening macroeconomic policy instruments. Some are measurement issues and others might be seen as the downsides of globalisation, which has integrated financial markets and redirected growth from the advanced toward the emerging economies. Yet measurable rates of return on investment do appear to be impaired by rises in perceived investment risks, institutionalised risk aversion, increased ageing and dependency, declining shares of government spending in public investment and R&D with rising shares of these directed to health, the retention of trade distortions, new concentration in industrial structure and a slower rate of human capital accumulation, not to mention an unexpected global abundance of fossil fuels and a slower Chinese economy. The information and literature supporting these concerns is reviewed and implications for global and Australian policy are inferred.

Suggested Citation

  • Grace Taylor & Rod Tyers, 2017. "Secular Stagnation: Determinants and Consequences for Australia," CAMA Working Papers 2017-01, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2017-01
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    File URL: https://crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/2025-02/1_2017_taylor_tyers.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Rod Tyers & Yixiao Zhou, 2023. "Automation and inequality with taxes and transfers," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 70(1), pages 68-100, February.
    2. Zhou, Yixiao & Tyers, Rod, 2019. "Automation and inequality in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    3. Rod Tyers & Yixiao Zhou, 2023. "The Tech War: Distributional Consequences Of International Rivalry," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 23-07, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    4. Rod Tyers & Yixiao Zhou, 2018. "Automation, Taxes and Transfers with International Rivalry," CAMA Working Papers 2018-44, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    5. Rodd Tyers & Yixiao Zhou, 2024. "China Slowdown Shocks, the West and Australia," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 24-01, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    6. Rod Tyers & Yixiao Zhou, 2022. "A Bamboo Curtain: The Grim Australian Consequences of China Conflict," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 22-20, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • H87 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - International Fiscal Issues; International Public Goods

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