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Dry Bulk Shipping and the Evolution of Maritime Transport Costs, 1850-2020

Author

Listed:
  • David S. Jacks
  • Martin Stuermer

Abstract

We provide evidence on the dynamic effects of fuel price shocks, shipping demand shocks, and shipping supply shocks on real dry bulk freight rates in the long run. We first analyze a new dataset on dry bulk freight rates for the period from 1850 to 2020, finding that they followed a downward but undulating path with a cumulative decline of 79%. Next, we turn to understanding the drivers of booms and busts in the dry bulk shipping industry, finding that shipping demand shocks strongly dominate all others as drivers of real dry bulk freight rates in the long run. Furthermore, while shipping demand shocks have increased in importance over time, shipping supply shocks in particular have become less relevant.

Suggested Citation

  • David S. Jacks & Martin Stuermer, 2021. "Dry Bulk Shipping and the Evolution of Maritime Transport Costs, 1850-2020," NBER Working Papers 28627, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28627
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    Cited by:

    1. Timothy J. Hatton, 2025. "Emigrant voyages from the UK to North America and Australasia, 1853–1913," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 78(2), pages 452-473, May.
    2. Ardelean,Adina Teodora & Lugovskyy,Volodymyr & Skiba,Alexandre & Terner,David Michael, 2022. "Fathoming Shipping Costs : An Exploration of Recent Literature, Data, and Patterns," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9992, The World Bank.
    3. Colin A. Carter & Sandro Steinbach & Xiting Zhuang, 2023. "Supply chain disruptions and containerized agricultural exports from California ports," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(2), pages 1051-1071, June.
    4. Padhan, Hemachandra & Kocoglu, Mustafa & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Haouas, Ilham, 2024. "Economic activities, dry bulk freight, and economic policy uncertainties as drivers of oil prices: A tail-behaviour time-varying causality perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    5. Geoffrey R. Dunbar & Walter Steingress & Ben Tomlin, 2023. "Climate Variability and International Trade," Staff Working Papers 23-8, Bank of Canada.
    6. Martin Stuermer, 2022. "Non-renewable resource extraction over the long term: empirical evidence from global copper production," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 35(3), pages 617-625, December.
    7. Carrière-Swallow, Yan & Deb, Pragyan & Furceri, Davide & Jiménez, Daniel & Ostry, Jonathan D., 2023. "Shipping costs and inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    8. Rausser, Gordon & Stuermer, Martin, 2020. "A Dynamic Analysis of Collusive Action: The Case of the World Copper Market, 1882-2016," MPRA Paper 104708, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Gong, Yuting & Peng, Yongyuan & Xu, Luxuan & Chen, Kecai & Shi, Wenming, 2025. "Shipping news sentiment as a predictor of iron ore freight rates: Hybrid evidence from lexicon-based analysis and threshold autoregression modelling," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 178-190.
    10. Doshchyn, Artur, 2025. "Sinking ships: Liquidity constraints and return predictability in recessions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • N70 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • R40 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - General

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