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Environmental and economic effects of post-Kyoto carbon regimes: Results of simulations with the global model GINFORS

  • Lutz, Christian
  • Meyer, Bernd
Registered author(s):

    Using the extensive and disaggregated global GINFORS model, consequences of different possible post-Kyoto regimes on the German and European economy and other major economies in the medium run until 2020 are depicted. The approach is very extensive and detailed in comparison to already existing analyses: this holds for the number of explicitly modelled countries (50 and 2 regions) and 41 economic sectors, input-output tables, the bilateral trade flows, the detailed coverage of behavioural parameters, the coverage of energy balances and CO2 emissions as well as for the number and precise economic-political design of simulation runs. Global emissions will double until 2030 compared to 1990 levels without the existence of a far-reaching climate regime after 2012. A unilateral commitment of the EU would only be a "drop in the bucket", which solely strengthens the credibility of the EU in international negotiations. A stabilisation of global emissions in 2020 compared to 2010, which is consistent with the 2 target of the EU can only be achieved, if all developed and at least the large emerging economies participate and if all possible existing market-ready reduction technologies are used.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V2W-4VP174K-2/2/30fea29793a122169eee447928a0775f
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

    Volume (Year): 37 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 5 (May)
    Pages: 1758-1766

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:37:y:2009:i:5:p:1758-1766
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

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    1. Bernd Meyer & Christian Lutz & Peter Schnur & Gerd Zika, 2007. "National Economic Policy Simulations with Global Interdependencies: A Sensitivity Analysis for Germany," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 37-55.
    2. Valentina Bosetti & Carlo Carraro & Alessandra Sgobbi & Massimo Tavoni, 2008. "Modelling Economic Impacts of Alternative International Climate Policy Architectures.A Quantitative and Comparative Assessment of Architectures for Agreement," CESifo Working Paper Series 2417, CESifo Group Munich.
    3. Barker, Terry & Junankar, Sudhir & Pollitt, Hector & Summerton, Philip, 2007. "Carbon leakage from unilateral Environmental Tax Reforms in Europe, 1995-2005," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 6281-6292, December.
    4. Persson, Tobias A. & Azar, C. & Johansson, D. & Lindgren, K., 2007. "Major oil exporters may profit rather than lose, in a carbon-constrained world," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 6346-6353, December.
    5. Warwick J. McKibbin & Peter J. Wilcoxen, 2002. "The Role of Economics in Climate Change Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(2), pages 107-129, Spring.
    6. repec:reg:rpubli:353 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Sheila M. Olmstead & Robert N. Stavins, 2006. "An International Policy Architecture for the Post-Kyoto Era," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 35-38, May.
    8. Lehr, Ulrike & Nitsch, Joachim & Kratzat, Marlene & Lutz, Christian & Edler, Dietmar, 2008. "Renewable energy and employment in Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 108-117, January.
    9. Dannenberg, Astrid & Mennel, Tim & Moslener, Ulf, 2008. "What does Europe pay for clean energy?--Review of macroeconomic simulation studies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1318-1330, April.
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