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Environmental and economic effects of post-Kyoto carbon regimes: Results of simulations with the global model GINFORS

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  • Lutz, Christian
  • Meyer, Bernd

Abstract

Using the extensive and disaggregated global GINFORS model, consequences of different possible post-Kyoto regimes on the German and European economy and other major economies in the medium run until 2020 are depicted. The approach is very extensive and detailed in comparison to already existing analyses: this holds for the number of explicitly modelled countries (50 and 2 regions) and 41 economic sectors, input-output tables, the bilateral trade flows, the detailed coverage of behavioural parameters, the coverage of energy balances and CO2 emissions as well as for the number and precise economic-political design of simulation runs. Global emissions will double until 2030 compared to 1990 levels without the existence of a far-reaching climate regime after 2012. A unilateral commitment of the EU would only be a "drop in the bucket", which solely strengthens the credibility of the EU in international negotiations. A stabilisation of global emissions in 2020 compared to 2010, which is consistent with the 2 target of the EU can only be achieved, if all developed and at least the large emerging economies participate and if all possible existing market-ready reduction technologies are used.

Suggested Citation

  • Lutz, Christian & Meyer, Bernd, 2009. "Environmental and economic effects of post-Kyoto carbon regimes: Results of simulations with the global model GINFORS," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1758-1766, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:37:y:2009:i:5:p:1758-1766
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lehr, Ulrike & Nitsch, Joachim & Kratzat, Marlene & Lutz, Christian & Edler, Dietmar, 2008. "Renewable energy and employment in Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 108-117, January.
    2. Dannenberg, Astrid & Mennel, Tim & Moslener, Ulf, 2008. "What does Europe pay for clean energy?--Review of macroeconomic simulation studies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1318-1330, April.
    3. Sheila M. Olmstead & Robert N. Stavins, 2006. "An International Policy Architecture for the Post-Kyoto Era," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 35-38, May.
    4. Persson, Tobias A. & Azar, C. & Johansson, D. & Lindgren, K., 2007. "Major oil exporters may profit rather than lose, in a carbon-constrained world," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 6346-6353, December.
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    6. repec:reg:rpubli:353 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Bernd Meyer & Christian Lutz & Peter Schnur & Gerd Zika, 2007. "National Economic Policy Simulations with Global Interdependencies: A Sensitivity Analysis for Germany," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 37-55.
    8. Valentina Bosetti & Carlo Carraro & Alessandra Sgobbi & Massimo Tavoni, 2008. "Modelling Economic Impacts of Alternative International Climate Policy Architectures. A Quantitative and Comparative Assessment of Architectures for Agreement," CESifo Working Paper Series 2417, CESifo Group Munich.
    9. Barker, Terry & Junankar, Sudhir & Pollitt, Hector & Summerton, Philip, 2007. "Carbon leakage from unilateral Environmental Tax Reforms in Europe, 1995-2005," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 6281-6292, December.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lutz, Christian & Lehr, Ulrike & Wiebe, Kirsten S., 2012. "Economic effects of peak oil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 829-834.
    2. Christian Lutz, 2010. "How to increase global resource productivity? Findings from modelling in the petrE project," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 343-356, August.
    3. Michetti, Melania & Parrado, Ramiro, 2012. "Improving land-use modelling within CGE to assess forest-based mitigation potential and costs," Congress Papers 124380, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
    4. Yinger Zheng & Haixia Zheng & Xinyue Ye, 2016. "Using Machine Learning in Environmental Tax Reform Assessment for Sustainable Development: A Case Study of Hubei Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(11), pages 1-20, November.
    5. Acquaye, Adolf & Duffy, Aidan & Basu, Biswajit, 2011. "Embodied emissions abatement--A policy assessment using stochastic analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 429-441, January.
    6. Mark Meyer & Martin Distelkamp & Gerd Ahlert & Prof. Dr. Bernd Meyer, 2013. "Macroeconomic Modelling of the Global Economy-Energy-Environment Nexus - An Overview of Recent Advancements of the Dynamic Simulation Model GINFORS," GWS Discussion Paper Series 13-5, GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research.
    7. Gerd Ahlert & Prof. Dr. Bernd Meyer & Roland Zieschank & Prof. Dr. Hans Diefenbacher & Prof. Dr. Hans G. Nutzinger, 2013. "Synopsis of Approaches to Welfare and of Green Growth Concepts Currently under Discussion," GWS Discussion Paper Series 13-1, GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research.
    8. Wiebe, Kirsten S. & Lutz, Christian, 2016. "Endogenous technological change and the policy mix in renewable power generation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 739-751.
    9. Markandya, A. & Antimiani, A. & Costantini, V. & Martini, C. & Palma, A. & Tommasino, M.C., 2015. "Analyzing Trade-offs in International Climate Policy Options: The Case of the Green Climate Fund," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 93-107.
    10. Dr. Ulrike Lehr & Dr. Christian Lutz & Kirsten Wiebe, 2011. "Medium Term Economic Effects of Peak Oil Today," GWS Discussion Paper Series 11-3, GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research.

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