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Sustainable Cooperation in Global Climate Policy: Specific Formulas and Emission Targets

  • Bosetti, Valentina

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei)

  • Frankel, Jeffrey A.

    (Harvard University)

We explore a framework that could be used to assign quantitative allocations of emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), across all countries, one budget period at a time, as envisioned at the December 2011 negotiations in Durban. Under the two-part plan: (i) China, India, and other developing countries accept targets at Business as Usual (BAU) in the coming budget period, the same period in which the US first agrees to cuts below BAU; and (ii) all countries are asked in the future to make further cuts in accordance with a common numerical formula to all. The formula is expressed as the sum of a Progressive Reductions Factor, a Latecomer Catch-up Factor, and a Gradual Equalization Factor. This paper builds on our previous work in many ways. First we update targets to reflect pledges made by governments after the Copenhagen Accord of December 2009 and confirmed at the Cancun meeting of December 2010. Second, the WITCH model, which we use to project economic and environmental effects of any given set of emission targets, has been refined and updated to reflect economic and technological developments. We include the possibility of emissions reduction from bio energy (BE), carbon capture and storage (CCS), and avoided deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) which is an important component of pledges in several developing countries. Third, we use a Nash criterion for evaluating whether a country's costs are too high to sustain cooperation.

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Paper provided by Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government in its series Working Paper Series with number rwp12-012.

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Date of creation: Apr 2012
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Handle: RePEc:ecl:harjfk:rwp12-012
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  1. Humberto Llavador & John E. Roemer & Joaquim Silvestre, 2011. "Sustainability in the Presence of Global Warming: Theory and Empirics," Human Development Research Papers (2009 to present) HDRP-2011-05, Human Development Report Office (HDRO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
  2. Aldy, Joseph & Barrett, Scott & Stavins, Robert, 2003. "Thirteen Plus One: A Comparison of Global Climate Policy Architectures," Working Paper Series rwp03-012, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  3. Tavoni, Massimo & Tol, Richard S. J., 2009. "Counting Only the Hits? The Risk of Underestimating the Costs of Stringent Climate Policy," Papers WP324, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  4. Seidman, Laurence & Lewis, Kenneth, 2009. "Compensations and contributions under an international carbon treaty," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 341-350, May.
  5. Valentina Bosetti & Carlo Carraro & Marzio Galeotti & Emanuele Massetti & Massimo Tavoni, 2006. "WITCH. A World Induced Technical Change Hybrid Model," Working Papers 2006_46, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
  6. A. Ellerman & Barbara Buchner, 2008. "Over-Allocation or Abatement? A Preliminary Analysis of the EU ETS Based on the 2005–06 Emissions Data," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 41(2), pages 267-287, October.
  7. Richard B. Stewart & Jonathan B. Wiener, 2003. "Reconstructing Climate Policy," Books, American Enterprise Institute, number 53156, 8.
  8. Barrett, Scott & Stavins, Robert, 2002. "Increasing Participation and Compliance in International Climate Change Agreements," Working Paper Series rwp02-031, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  9. Dieter Helm & Cameron Hepburn & Richard Mash, 2003. "Credible Carbon Policy," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(3), pages 438-450.
  10. Valentina Bosetti & Carlo Carraro & Alessandra Sgobbi & Massimo Tavoni, 2008. "Modelling Economic Impacts of Alternative International Climate Policy Architectures.A Quantitative and Comparative Assessment of Architectures for Agreement," CESifo Working Paper Series 2417, CESifo Group Munich.
  11. Randall Lutter, 2000. "Developing Countries' Greenhouse Emmissions: Uncertainty and Implications for Participation in the Kyoto Protocol," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 93-120.
  12. William A. Pizer, 2006. "The Evolution of a Global Climate Change Agreement," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 26-30, May.
  13. Warwick J. McKibbin & Peter J. Wilcoxen, 2006. "A Credible Foundation For Long Term International Cooperation On Climate Change," CAMA Working Papers 2006-15, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  14. Manne, Alan & Mendelsohn, Robert & Richels, Richard, 1995. "MERGE : A model for evaluating regional and global effects of GHG reduction policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 17-34, January.
  15. Richard Tol, 2002. "Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change, Part II. Dynamic Estimates," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 21(2), pages 135-160, February.
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