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Counting Only the Hits? The Risk of Underestimating the Costs of Stringent Climate Policy

  • Tavoni, Massimo
  • Tol, Richard S. J.

This paper warns against the risk of underestimating the costs -and the uncertainty about the costs- of achieving stringent stabilization targets. We argue that a straightforward review of integrated assessment models results produces biased estimates for the more ambitious climate objectives such as those compatible with the 2°C of the European Union and the G8. The magnitude and range of estimates are significantly reduced because only the most optimistic results are reported for such targets. We suggest a procedure that addresses this partiality. The results show highly variable costs for the most difficult scenarios.

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Paper provided by Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) in its series Papers with number WP324.

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Date of creation: Oct 2009
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Handle: RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp324
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  1. Manishi Prasad & Peter Wahlqvist & Rich Shikiar & Ya-Chen Tina Shih, 2004. "A," PharmacoEconomics, Springer Healthcare | Adis, vol. 22(4), pages 225-244.
  2. John P. Weyant, Francisco C. de la Chesnaye, and Geoff J. Blanford, 2006. "Overview of EMF-21: Multigas Mitigation and Climate Policy," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 1-32.
  3. Weyant, John P., 2004. "Introduction and overview," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 501-515, July.
  4. Fischer, Carolyn & Morgenstern, Richard, 2003. "Carbon Abatement Costs: Why the Wide Range of Estimates?," Discussion Papers dp-03-42-rev, Resources For the Future.
  5. Kuik, Onno & Brander, Luke & Tol, Richard S.J., 2009. "Marginal abatement costs of greenhouse gas emissions: A meta-analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1395-1403, April.
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