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Costs of greenhouse gas abatement: meta-analysis of post-SRES mitigation scenarios

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  • Terry Barker
  • Jonathan Köhler
  • Marcelo Villena

Abstract

Economic analyses have produced widely differing estimates of the economic implications of policies for greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, ranging from high costs to modest benefits. The main reason for the differences appears to be differences in approaches and assumptions. This paper analyzes the extent to which the post-SRES 1 (after the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) model results for the global costs of GHG mitigation can be explained by the model’s characteristics and the assumptions adopted. The research applies meta-analysis methodology combined with scatter plots of the data to identify the ranges of the results and outlying data points. A database of scenarios and results was compiled for the post-SRES scenarios, which has the major advantage that all seven models for which suitable data are available have been run using the same, independently defined scenarios. The results are strongly clustered, with only a few results outside the range of −4% to 0% gross domestic product (GDP), with a strong correlation between CO 2 reduction and GDP reduction. A set of model characteristics is found to be highly significant (1% level), explaining some 70% of the variance. The main conclusion is that all modeling results regarding “GDP costs of mitigating climate change” should be qualified by the key assumptions leading to the estimates. The treatment of these assumptions can lead to the mitigation being associated with increases in GDP or with reductions. Copyright Springer Japan 2002

Suggested Citation

  • Terry Barker & Jonathan Köhler & Marcelo Villena, 2002. "Costs of greenhouse gas abatement: meta-analysis of post-SRES mitigation scenarios," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 5(2), pages 135-166, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:envpol:v:5:y:2002:i:2:p:135-166
    DOI: 10.1007/BF03354027
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Rozenberg, Julie & Celine, Guivarch & Lempert, Robert & Hallegatte, Stephane, 2012. "Building SSPs for Climate Policy Analysis: A Scenario Elicitation Methodology to Map the Space of Possible Future Challenges to Mitigation and Adaptation," Climate Change and Sustainable Development 130898, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    2. Tavoni, Massimo & Tol, Richard S. J., 2009. "Counting Only the Hits? The Risk of Underestimating the Costs of Stringent Climate Policy," Papers WP324, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    3. Johanna CHOUMERT & Pascale COMBES MOTEL & Charlain GUEGANG DJIMELI, 2017. "The biofuel-development nexus: A meta-analysis," Working Papers 201709, CERDI.
    4. Mathy, Sandrine & Guivarch, Céline, 2010. "Climate policies in a second-best world--A case study on India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1519-1528, March.
    5. Scrieciu, S. Serban, 2007. "The inherent dangers of using computable general equilibrium models as a single integrated modelling framework for sustainability impact assessment. A critical note on Bohringer and Loschel (2006)," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(4), pages 678-684, February.
    6. Dai, Hancheng & Mischke, Peggy & Xie, Xuxuan & Xie, Yang & Masui, Toshihiko, 2016. "Closing the gap? Top-down versus bottom-up projections of China’s regional energy use and CO2 emissions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1355-1373.
    7. Choumert Nkolo, Johanna & Combes Motel, Pascale & Guegang Djimeli, Charlain, 2018. "Income-generating Effects of Biofuel Policies: A Meta-analysis of the CGE Literature," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 230-242.
    8. Julie Rozenberg & Céline Guivarch & Robert Lempert & Stéphane Hallegatte, 2014. "Building SSPs for climate policy analysis: a scenario elicitation methodology to map the space of possible future challenges to mitigation and adaptation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 509-522, February.
    9. Tol, Richard S.J., 2012. "A cost–benefit analysis of the EU 20/20/2020 package," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 288-295.
    10. Terry Barker & Douglas Crawford-Brown, 2013. "Are estimated costs of stringent mitigation biased?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 121(2), pages 129-138, November.
    11. Kalirajan, Kaliappa & Singh, Kanhaiya & Thangavelu, Shandre & Venkatachalam, Anbumozhi & Perera, Kumidini, 2011. "Climate Change and Poverty Reduction—Where Does Official Development Assistance Money Go?," ADBI Working Papers 318, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    12. Adam Rose & Noah Dormady, 2011. "A Meta-Analysis of the Economic Impacts of Climate Change Policy in the United States," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 143-166.

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