IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ssb/dispap/209.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Optimal Climate Policy under the Possibility of a Catastrophe

Author

Listed:

Abstract

This paper concerns optimal emissions of greenhouse gases when catastrophic consequences are possible. A numerical model is presented which takes into account both continuous climate-feedback damages as well as the possibility of a catastrophic outcome. The uncertainty in the model concerns whether or not a future catastrophe will occur. However, the welfare losses imposed by such an outcome are assumed known to the decision-maker. An important result is that the possibility of a climate catastrophe is a major argument for greenhouse gas abatement even in absence of continuous damage. Special attention is given to analyses on the probability of a catastrophe and the pure rate of time preferences, and the implicit values of these parameters are calculated if the Rio stabilisation target is assumed to be optimal. Finally, the expected value of perfect information about the probability of the arrival of a catastrophe is estimated.

Suggested Citation

  • Jon Gjerde & Sverre Grepperud & Snorre Kverndokk, 1998. "Optimal Climate Policy under the Possibility of a Catastrophe," Discussion Papers 209, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:209
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ssb.no/a/publikasjoner/pdf/DP/dp209.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nordhaus, William D, 1991. "To Slow or Not to Slow: The Economics of the Greenhouse Effect," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(407), pages 920-937, July.
    2. William R. Cline, 1992. "Economics of Global Warming, The," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 39, October.
    3. Tsur, Yacov & Zemel, Amos, 1996. "Accounting for global warming risks: Resource management under event uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(6-7), pages 1289-1305.
    4. Nordhaus, William D & Yang, Zili, 1996. "A Regional Dynamic General-Equilibrium Model of Alternative Climate-Change Strategies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(4), pages 741-765, September.
    5. Alan S. Manne & Richard G. Richels, 1994. "The Costs of Stabilizing Global CO2 Emissions: A Probabilistic Analysis Based on Expert Judgments," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 31-56.
    6. Elin Berg & Snorre Kverndokk & Knut Einar Rosendahl, 1997. "Market Power, International CO2 Taxation and Oil Wealth," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 33-71.
    7. Alan Manne & Richard Richels, 1992. "Buying Greenhouse Insurance: The Economic Costs of CO2 Emission Limits," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026213280x.
    8. Oleg Eismont & Heinz Welsch, 1996. "Optimal greenhouse gas emissions under various assessments of climate change ambiguity," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 8(2), pages 129-140, September.
    9. Peck, Stephen C. & Teisberg, Thomas J., 1993. "CO2 emissions control : Comparing policy instruments," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 222-230, March.
    10. Chakravorty, Ujjayant & Roumasset, James & Tse, Kinping, 1997. "Endogenous Substitution among Energy Resources and Global Warming," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(6), pages 1201-1234, December.
    11. Nordhaus, William D., 1993. "Rolling the 'DICE': an optimal transition path for controlling greenhouse gases," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 27-50, March.
    12. Pizer, William, 1997. "Optimal Choice of Policy Instrument and Stringency Under Uncertainty: The Case of Climate Change," Discussion Papers dp-97-17, Resources For the Future.
    13. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-679, June.
    14. Fankhauser, Samuel & Kverndokk, Snorre, 1996. "The global warming game -- Simulations of a CO2-reduction agreement," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 83-102, March.
    15. Jean-Marc Burniaux & John P. Martin & Giuseppe Nicoletti & Joaquim Oliveira Martins, 1992. "GREEN a Multi-Sector, Multi-Region General Equilibrium Model for Quantifying the Costs of Curbing CO2 Emissions: A Technical Manual," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 116, OECD Publishing.
    16. Gjerde, Jon & Grepperud, Sverre & Kverndokk, Snorre, 1999. "Optimal climate policy under the possibility of a catastrophe," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3-4), pages 289-317, August.
    17. Eyckmans, Johan & Proost, Stef & Schokkaert, Erik, 1993. "Efficiency and Distribution in Greenhouse Negotiations," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(3), pages 363-397.
    18. Jean-Marc Burniaux & John P. Martin & Giuseppe Nicoletti & Joaquim Oliveira Martins, 1992. "The Costs of Reducing CO2 Emissions: A Technical Manual," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 115, OECD Publishing.
    19. William D. Nordhaus & David Popp, 1997. "What is the Value of Scientific Knowledge? An Application to Global Warming Using the PRICE Model," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 1-45.
    20. Peck, Stephen C. & Teisberg, Thomas J., 1993. "Global warming uncertainties and the value of information: an analysis using CETA," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 71-97, March.
    21. Schelling, Thomas C, 1992. "Some Economics of Global Warming," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 1-14, March.
    22. Snorre Kverndokk, 1993. "Global CO2 Agreements: A Cost-Effective Approach," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 91-112.
    23. Christiansen, Vidar & Jansen, Eilev S., 1978. "Implicit social preferences in the Norwegian system of indirect taxation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 217-245, October.
    24. Stephen C Peck & Thomas J. Teisberg, 1992. "CETA: A Model for Carbon Emissions Trajectory Assessment," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 55-78.
    25. Peck, Stephen C & Teisberg, Thomas J, 1995. "International CO2 emissions control : An analysis using CETA," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4-5), pages 297-308.
    26. Morton I. Kamien & Nancy L. Schwartz, 1971. "Optimal Maintenance and Sale Age for a Machine Subject to Failure," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 17(8), pages 495-504, April.
    27. Larson, Bruce A. & Tobey, James A., 1994. "Uncertain climate change and the international policy response," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 77-84, September.
    28. J. M. Reilly & J. A. Edmonds & R. H. Gardner & A. L. Brenkerf, 1987. "Uncertainty Analysis of the IEA/ORAU CO2 Emissions Model," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 1-29.
    29. Asbjørn Torvanger, 1997. "Uncertain climate change in an intergenerational planning model," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 9(1), pages 103-124, January.
    30. Clarke, Harry R. & Reed, William J., 1994. "Consumption/pollution tradeoffs in an environment vulnerable to pollution-related catastrophic collapse," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 991-1010, September.
    31. Cropper, M. L., 1976. "Regulating activities with catastrophic environmental effects," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 1-15, June.
    32. Johan Eyckmans & Stef Proost & Erik Schokkaert, 1993. "Efficiency and Distribution in Greenhouse Negotiations," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(3), pages 363-397, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fankhauser, Samuel & Kverndokk, Snorre, 1996. "The global warming game -- Simulations of a CO2-reduction agreement," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 83-102, March.
    2. Wei, Yi-Ming & Mi, Zhi-Fu & Huang, Zhimin, 2015. "Climate policy modeling: An online SCI-E and SSCI based literature review," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 57(PA), pages 70-84.
    3. Hammitt, James K. & Adams, John L., 1996. "The value of international cooperation for abating global climate change," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 219-241, October.
    4. Peck, Stephen C & Teisberg, Thomas J, 1995. "International CO2 emissions control : An analysis using CETA," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4-5), pages 297-308.
    5. Richard S J Tol, 2018. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 12(1), pages 4-25.
    6. Kolstad, Charles D. & Toman, Michael, 2005. "The Economics of Climate Policy," Handbook of Environmental Economics, in: K. G. Mäler & J. R. Vincent (ed.), Handbook of Environmental Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 30, pages 1561-1618, Elsevier.
    7. Nordhaus, William, 2013. "Integrated Economic and Climate Modeling," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1069-1131, Elsevier.
    8. Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Janda, Karel & Zilberman, David, 2015. "Selective reporting and the social cost of carbon," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 394-406.
    9. Toman, Michael & Shogren, Jason, 2000. "Climate Change Policy," Discussion Papers dp-00-22, Resources For the Future.
    10. Michael Toman, 1998. "Research Frontiers in the Economics of Climate Change," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 11(3), pages 603-621, April.
    11. Plambeck, Erica L & Hope, Chris, 1996. "PAGE95 : An updated valuation of the impacts of global warming," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(9), pages 783-793, September.
    12. Toth, Ferenc L, 1995. "Discounting in integrated assessments of climate change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4-5), pages 403-409.
    13. Paul Ekins, 1995. "Rethinking the costs related to global warming: A survey of the issues," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 6(3), pages 231-277, October.
    14. Tol, Richard S.J., 2013. "Targets for global climate policy: An overview," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 911-928.
    15. Nævdal, Eric & Vislie, Jon, 2013. "Resource Depletion and Capital Accumulation under Catastrophic Risk: Policy Actions against Stochastic Thresholds and Stock Pollution," Memorandum 24/2013, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    16. Nævdal, Erik & Vislie, Jon, 2012. "Resource Depletion and Capital Accumulation under Catastrophic Risk: The Role of Stochastic Thresholds and Stock Pollution," Memorandum 24/2012, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    17. Wirl, Franz, 2006. "Consequences of irreversibilities on optimal intertemporal CO2 emission policies under uncertainty," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 105-123, May.
    18. Richard S.J. Tol, 2021. "Estimates of the social cost of carbon have not changed over time," Working Paper Series 0821, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    19. Aurélie Méjean & Antonin Pottier & Marc Fleurbaey & Stéphane Zuber, 2020. "Catastrophic climate change, population ethics and intergenerational equity," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(2), pages 873-890, November.
    20. Polasky, Stephen & de Zeeuw, Aart & Wagener, Florian, 2011. "Optimal management with potential regime shifts," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 229-240, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate catastrophes; CO2 emissions; optimal policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D6 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics
    • Q2 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:209. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ssbgvno.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: L Maasø (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ssbgvno.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.