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Building SSPs for Climate Policy Analysis: A Scenario Elicitation Methodology to Map the Space of Possible Future Challenges to Mitigation and Adaptation

Author

Listed:
  • Julie Rozenberg

    (CIRED)

  • Céline Guivarch

    (CIRED)

  • Robert Lempert

    (RAND Corporation, Santa Monica Office)

  • Stéphane Hallegatte

    (World Bank and Météo France)

Abstract

The scientific community is now developing a new set of scenarios, referred to as Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) to replace the SRES scenarios. To be used to investigate adaptation and mitigation, SSPs need to be contrasted along two axes: challenges to mitigation, and challenges to adaptation. This paper proposes a methodology to develop SSPs with a “backward” approach. The methodology is based on (i) an a priori identification of potential drivers of mitigation and adaptation challenges; (ii) a modelling exercise to transform these drivers into a large set of scenarios; (iii) an a posteriori selection of a few SSPs among these scenarios, such that they cover the uncertainty space in terms of challenges to adaptation and mitigation. This methodology is applied to the selection of a few SSPs, but it could also be applied to any specific decisions faced by decision-makers. From a large database of runs built by many models, the methodology would allow selecting the most relevant scenarios for a specific decision, i.e. scenarios that best predict when the analyzed choice performs poorly or well.

Suggested Citation

  • Julie Rozenberg & Céline Guivarch & Robert Lempert & Stéphane Hallegatte, 2012. "Building SSPs for Climate Policy Analysis: A Scenario Elicitation Methodology to Map the Space of Possible Future Challenges to Mitigation and Adaptation," Working Papers 2012.52, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  • Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2012.52
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Evelina Trutnevyte & Céline Guivarch & Robert Lempert & Neil Strachan, 2016. "Reinvigorating the scenario technique to expand uncertainty consideration," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 373-379, April.
    2. Nebojsa Nakicenovic & Robert Lempert & Anthony Janetos, 2014. "A Framework for the Development of New Socio-economic Scenarios for Climate Change Research: Introductory Essay," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 351-361, February.
    3. Balint, T. & Lamperti, F. & Mandel, A. & Napoletano, M. & Roventini, A. & Sapio, A., 2017. "Complexity and the Economics of Climate Change: A Survey and a Look Forward," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 252-265.
    4. repec:eee:eneeco:v:64:y:2017:i:c:p:530-541 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:eee:tefoso:v:125:y:2017:i:c:p:258-274 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Noémie Neverre & Patrice Dumas, 2016. "Projecting Basin-Scale Distributed Irrigation and Domestic Water Demands and Values: A Generic Method for Large-Scale Modeling," Water Economics and Policy (WEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(04), pages 1-28, December.
    7. Yeonjoo Kim & Eun-Sung Chung & Sang-Mook Jun, 2015. "Iterative Framework for Robust Reclaimed Wastewater Allocation in a Changing Environment Using Multi-Criteria Decision Making," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(2), pages 295-311, January.
    8. Li, Francis G.N. & Trutnevyte, Evelina, 2017. "Investment appraisal of cost-optimal and near-optimal pathways for the UK electricity sector transition to 2050," Applied Energy, Elsevier, pages 89-109.
    9. Guivarch, Céline & Monjon, Stéphanie, 2017. "Identifying the main uncertainty drivers of energy security in a low-carbon world: The case of Europe," Energy Economics, Elsevier, pages 530-541.
    10. repec:eee:energy:v:140:y:2017:i:p1:p:1276-1291 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Stephane Hallegatte & Mook Bangalore & Laura Bonzanigo & Marianne Fay & Tamaro Kane & Ulf Narloch & Julie Rozenberg & David Treguer & Adrien Vogt-Schilb, 2016. "Shock Waves," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 22787.
    12. Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Nigel Arnell & Timothy Carter & Jae Edmonds & Elmar Kriegler & Ritu Mathur & Brian O’Neill & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren & Timm Zwickel, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 363-372, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Socio-Economic Scenarios; Climate Policy; Mitigation; Adaptation; Shared Socio-Economic Pathways; Scenario Elicitation Methodology;

    JEL classification:

    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • O38 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Government Policy

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