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Building SSPs for Climate Policy Analysis: A Scenario Elicitation Methodology to Map the Space of Possible Future Challenges to Mitigation and Adaptation

  • Julie Rozenberg


  • Céline Guivarch


  • Robert Lempert

    (RAND Corporation, Santa Monica Office)

  • Stéphane Hallegatte

    (World Bank and Météo France)

The scientific community is now developing a new set of scenarios, referred to as Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) to replace the SRES scenarios. To be used to investigate adaptation and mitigation, SSPs need to be contrasted along two axes: challenges to mitigation, and challenges to adaptation. This paper proposes a methodology to develop SSPs with a “backward” approach. The methodology is based on (i) an a priori identification of potential drivers of mitigation and adaptation challenges; (ii) a modelling exercise to transform these drivers into a large set of scenarios; (iii) an a posteriori selection of a few SSPs among these scenarios, such that they cover the uncertainty space in terms of challenges to adaptation and mitigation. This methodology is applied to the selection of a few SSPs, but it could also be applied to any specific decisions faced by decision-makers. From a large database of runs built by many models, the methodology would allow selecting the most relevant scenarios for a specific decision, i.e. scenarios that best predict when the analyzed choice performs poorly or well.

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Paper provided by Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei in its series Working Papers with number 2012.52.

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Date of creation: Jul 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2012.52
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  1. Grubler, Arnulf & Nakicenovic, Nebojsa & Victor, David G., 1999. "Dynamics of energy technologies and global change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 247-280, May.
  2. Robert J. Lempert & David G. Groves & Steven W. Popper & Steve C. Bankes, 2006. "A General, Analytic Method for Generating Robust Strategies and Narrative Scenarios," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(4), pages 514-528, April.
  3. Julie Rozenberg & Stéphane Hallegatte & Adrien Vogt-Schilb & Olivier Sassi & Céline Guivarch & Henri Waisman & Jean Charles Hourcade, 2010. "Climate policies as a hedge against the uncertainty on future oil supply," Post-Print hal-00667118, HAL.
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  8. B.C. O'Neill & T Carter & Kl Ebi & J. Edmonds & Stéphane Hallegatte & E. Kemp-Benedict & E. Kriegler & L. Mearns & R. Moss & K. Riahi & B. Van Ruijven & D. Van Vuuren, 2012. "Meeting Report of the Workshop on The Nature and Use of New Socioeconomic Pathways for Climate Change Research," CIRED Working Papers hal-00801931, HAL.
  9. A. Greening, Lorna & Greene, David L. & Difiglio, Carmen, 2000. "Energy efficiency and consumption -- the rebound effect -- a survey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(6-7), pages 389-401, June.
  10. Russell S. Uhler, 1976. "Costs and Supply in Petroleum Exploration: The Case of Alberta," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 9(1), pages 72-90, February.
  11. Stéphane Hallegatte & Przyluski Valentin & Adrien Vogt-Schilb, 2011. "Building world narratives for climate change impact, adaptation and vulnerability analyses," Post-Print hal-00618688, HAL.
  12. Henri Waisman & Céline Guivarch & Fabio Grazi & Jean Hourcade, 2012. "The I maclim-R model: infrastructures, technical inertia and the costs of low carbon futures under imperfect foresight," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 114(1), pages 101-120, September.
  13. repec:hal:wpaper:hal-00866449 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. repec:hal:wpaper:hal-00866437 is not listed on IDEAS
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