IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpaper/hal-00866437.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Socio-economic Scenario Development for Climate Change Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Elmar Kriegler

    (PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • Brian-C O'Neill

    (NCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder])

  • Stéphane Hallegatte

    (Météo-France)

  • Tom Kram

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency)

  • Richard-H Moss

    (Joint Global Change Research Institute - Joint Global Change Research Institute)

  • Robert Lempert

    (RAND Corp - RAND Corp)

  • Thomas J Wilbanks

    (ORNL - Oak Ridge National Laboratory [Oak Ridge] - UT-Battelle, LLC)

Abstract

Socio-economic scenarios constitute an important tool for exploring the long-term consequences of anthropogenic climate change and available response options. They have been applied for different purposes and to a different degree in various areas of climate change analysis, typically in combination with projections of future climate change. Integrated assessment modeling (IAM) has used them to develop greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios for the 21st century and to investigate strategies for mitigating GHG emissions on a global scale. Analyses of climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerabilities (IAV) depend heavily on assumptions about underlying socio-economic developments, but have employed socio-economic scenarios to a lesser degree, due mainly to the multitude of contexts and scales of such analyses. A more consistent use of socio-economic scenarios that would allow an integrated perspective on mitigation, adaptation and residual climate impacts remains a major challenge. We assert that the identification of a set of global narratives and socio-economic pathways offering scalability to different regional contexts, a reasonable coverage of key socio-economic dimensions and relevant futures, and a sophisticated approach to separating climate policy from counter-factual "no policy" scenarios would be an important step towards meeting this challenge. Such "Shared Socio-economic Pathways" (SSPs) should be specified in an iterative manner and with close collaboration between IAM and IAV researchers to assure coverage of key dimensions, sufficient scalability and widespread adoption. They can be used not only as inputs to analyses, but also to collect the results of different climate change analyses in a matrix defined by two dimensions : climate exposure as characterized by a radiative forcing or temperature level and socio-economic development as classified by the SSPs. For some applications, SSPs may have to be augmented by "Shared Climate Policy Assumptions" (SPAs) capturing global components of climate policies that some studies may require as inputs. Finally, sufficient coverage of the relevant socio-economic dimensions for the analysis of mitigation, adaptation and residual climate impacts may be assessed by locating the SSPs along the dimensions of challenges to mitigation and to adaptation. We conclude that the development of SSPs, and integrated socio-economic scenarios more broadly, is a useful focal point for collaborative efforts between IAM and IAV researchers. This is likely to be a long-term and iterative enterprise comprising a collection of different activities : periodically taking stock of the evolving scenario work in both research communities, linking up individual efforts, and pursuing collaborative scenario work through appropriate platforms that still need to be established. In the short run, an important goal is to produce tangible outcomes that would allow the 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC to take a more integrated perspective on mitigation, adaptation and residual climate impacts.

Suggested Citation

  • Elmar Kriegler & Brian-C O'Neill & Stéphane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Richard-H Moss & Robert Lempert & Thomas J Wilbanks, 2010. "Socio-economic Scenario Development for Climate Change Analysis," Working Papers hal-00866437, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00866437
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00866437
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00866437/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mathy, Sandrine & Guivarch, Céline, 2010. "Climate policies in a second-best world--A case study on India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1519-1528, March.
    2. R. G. Lipsey & Kelvin Lancaster, 1956. "The General Theory of Second Best," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 11-32.
    3. Paul D. Raskin & Christi Electris & Richard A. Rosen, 2010. "The Century Ahead: Searching for Sustainability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 2(8), pages 1-26, August.
    4. Robert J. Lempert & David G. Groves & Steven W. Popper & Steve C. Bankes, 2006. "A General, Analytic Method for Generating Robust Strategies and Narrative Scenarios," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(4), pages 514-528, April.
    5. -, 2010. "Millennium Development Goals. Achieving the millennium development goals with equality in Latin America and the Caribbean: Progress and challenges. Summary," Libros y Documentos Institucionales, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 3100 edited by Eclac, September.
    6. Stéphane Hallegatte & Fanny Henriet & Jan Corfee-Morlot, 2011. "The economics of climate change impacts and policy benefits at city scale: a conceptual framework," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 51-87, January.
    7. Céline Guivarch & Renaud Crassous & Olivier Sassi & Stéphane Hallegatte, 2011. "The costs of climate policies in a second-best world with labour market imperfections," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 768-788, January.
    8. Susan Hanson & Robert Nicholls & N. Ranger & S. Hallegatte & J. Corfee-Morlot & C. Herweijer & J. Chateau, 2011. "A global ranking of port cities with high exposure to climate extremes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 89-111, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Julie Rozenberg & Céline Guivarch & Robert Lempert & Stéphane Hallegatte, 2014. "Building SSPs for climate policy analysis: a scenario elicitation methodology to map the space of possible future challenges to mitigation and adaptation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 509-522, February.
    2. Steckel, Jan Christoph & Brecha, Robert J. & Jakob, Michael & Strefler, Jessica & Luderer, Gunnar, 2013. "Development without energy? Assessing future scenarios of energy consumption in developing countries," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 53-67.
    3. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
    4. Detlef Vuuren & Elmar Kriegler & Brian O’Neill & Kristie Ebi & Keywan Riahi & Timothy Carter & Jae Edmonds & Stephane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Ritu Mathur & Harald Winkler, 2014. "A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 373-386, February.
    5. Nebojsa Nakicenovic & Robert Lempert & Anthony Janetos, 2014. "A Framework for the Development of New Socio-economic Scenarios for Climate Change Research: Introductory Essay," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 351-361, February.
    6. Schmid, Eva & Knopf, Brigitte, 2012. "Ambitious mitigation scenarios for Germany: A participatory approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 662-672.
    7. Dale Rothman & Patricia Romero-Lankao & Vanessa Schweizer & Beth Bee, 2014. "Challenges to adaptation: a fundamental concept for the shared socio-economic pathways and beyond," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 495-507, February.
    8. Elmar Kriegler & Jae Edmonds & Stéphane Hallegatte & Kristie Ebi & Tom Kram & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared climate policy assumptions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 401-414, February.
    9. Fang, Kai & Zhang, Qifeng & Long, Yin & Yoshida, Yoshikuni & Sun, Lu & Zhang, Haoran & Dou, Yi & Li, Shuai, 2019. "How can China achieve its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions by 2030? A multi-criteria allocation of China’s carbon emission allowance," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C), pages 380-389.
    10. Ottmar Edenhofer & Carlo Carraro & Jean-Charles Hourcade, 2012. "On the economics of decarbonization in an imperfect world," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 114(1), pages 1-8, September.
    11. Neil Strachan & Will Usher, 2012. "Failure to achieve stringent carbon reduction targets in a second-best policy world," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(2), pages 121-139, July.
    12. Csereklyei, Zsuzsanna & Humer, Stefan, 2013. "Projecting Long-Term Primary Energy Consumption," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 152, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    13. Kopp, Robert E. & Mignone, Bryan K., 2012. "The US government's social cost of carbon estimates after their first two years: Pathways for improvement," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 6, pages 1-41.
    14. Brian O’Neill & Elmar Kriegler & Keywan Riahi & Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Timothy Carter & Ritu Mathur & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 387-400, February.
    15. Heinz-Peter Witzke & Pavel Ciaian & Jacques Delince, 2014. "CAPRI long-term climate change scenario analysis: The AgMIP approach," JRC Working Papers JRC85872, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    16. Bas Ruijven & Marc Levy & Arun Agrawal & Frank Biermann & Joern Birkmann & Timothy Carter & Kristie Ebi & Matthias Garschagen & Bryan Jones & Roger Jones & Eric Kemp-Benedict & Marcel Kok & Kasper Kok, 2014. "Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 481-494, February.
    17. Vincent Viguie & Stéphane Hallegatte & Julie Rozenberg, 2014. "Downscaling long term socio-economic scenarios at city scale: A case study on Paris," Post-Print hal-01136217, HAL.
    18. Steven Smith & J. West & Page Kyle, 2011. "Economically consistent long-term scenarios for air pollutant emissions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(3), pages 619-627, October.
    19. Thomas Wilbanks & Kristie Ebi, 2014. "SSPs from an impact and adaptation perspective," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 473-479, February.
    20. Viguié, Vincent & Hallegatte, Stéphane & Rozenberg, Julie, 2014. "Downscaling long term socio-economic scenarios at city scale: A case study on Paris," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 305-324.
    21. Michael Mastrandrea & Katharine Mach & Gian-Kasper Plattner & Ottmar Edenhofer & Thomas Stocker & Christopher Field & Kristie Ebi & Patrick Matschoss, 2011. "The IPCC AR5 guidance note on consistent treatment of uncertainties: a common approach across the working groups," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(4), pages 675-691, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nicola Ranger & Stéphane Hallegatte & Sumana Bhattacharya & Murthy Bachu & Satya Priya & K. Dhore & Farhat Rafique & P. Mathur & Nicolas Naville & Fanny Henriet & Celine Herweijer & Sanjib Pohit & Jan, 2011. "An assessment of the potential impact of climate change on flood risk in Mumbai," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 139-167, January.
    2. Guivarch, Céline & Monjon, Stéphanie, 2017. "Identifying the main uncertainty drivers of energy security in a low-carbon world: The case of Europe," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 530-541.
    3. Meriem Hamdi-Cherif & Céline Guivarch & Philippe Quirion, 2011. "Sectoral targets for developing countries: combining 'common but differentiated re-sponsibilities' with 'meaningful participation'," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 731-751, January.
    4. Stéphane Hallegatte & Nicola Ranger & Olivier Mestre & Patrice Dumas & Jan Corfee-Morlot & Celine Herweijer & Robert Wood, 2011. "Assessing climate change impacts, sea level rise and storm surge risk in port cities: a case study on Copenhagen," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 113-137, January.
    5. Jan Siegmeier & Linus Mattauch & Max Franks & David Klenert & Anselm Schultes & Ottmar Edenhofer, 2015. "A Public Finance Perspective on Climate Policy: Six Interactions That May Enhance Welfare," Working Papers 2015.31, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    6. Stéphane Hallegatte & Jan Corfee-Morlot, 2011. "Understanding climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation at city scale: an introduction," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 1-12, January.
    7. Stéphane Hallegatte & Fanny Henriet & Jan Corfee-Morlot, 2011. "The economics of climate change impacts and policy benefits at city scale: a conceptual framework," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 51-87, January.
    8. Hirte, Georg & Nitzsche, Eric & Tscharaktschiew, Stefan, 2018. "Optimal adaptation in cities," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 147-169.
    9. Julie Shortridge & Janey Smith Camp, 2019. "Addressing Climate Change as an Emerging Risk to Infrastructure Systems," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(5), pages 959-967, May.
    10. Céline Guivarch & Sandrine Mathy, 2012. "Energy-GDP decoupling in a second best world—a case study on India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(2), pages 339-356, July.
    11. Sam Fankhauser, 2016. "Adaptation to climate change," GRI Working Papers 255, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    12. Jonathan M. Lee, 2015. "The Impact of Heterogeneous NOx Regulations on Distributed Electricity Generation in U.S. Manufacturing," Working Papers 15-12, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    13. Capellán-Pérez, Iñigo & Campos-Celador, Álvaro & Terés-Zubiaga, Jon, 2018. "Renewable Energy Cooperatives as an instrument towards the energy transition in Spain," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 215-229.
    14. Sergio Turner, 2004. "Pareto Improving Taxation in Incomplete Markets," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 310, Econometric Society.
    15. Bhardwaj, Chandan & Axsen, Jonn & Kern, Florian & McCollum, David, 2020. "Why have multiple climate policies for light-duty vehicles? Policy mix rationales, interactions and research gaps," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 309-326.
    16. Baker, Erin & Bosetti, Valentina & Salo, Ahti, 2016. "Finding Common Ground when Experts Disagree: Belief Dominance over Portfolios of Alternatives," MITP: Mitigation, Innovation and Transformation Pathways 243147, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    17. Kala Krishna & Abhiroop Mukhopadhyay & Cemile Yavas, 2005. "Trade with Labor Market Distortions and Heterogeneous Labor: Why Trade Can Hurt," Contributions to Economics, in: Günter S. Heiduk & Kar-yiu Wong (ed.), WTO and World Trade, pages 65-83, Springer.
    18. Jidong Wu & Ying Li & Ning Li & Peijun Shi, 2018. "Development of an Asset Value Map for Disaster Risk Assessment in China by Spatial Disaggregation Using Ancillary Remote Sensing Data," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(1), pages 17-30, January.
    19. Richter, Wolfram F., 2009. "Taxing education in Ramsey's tradition," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(11-12), pages 1254-1260, December.
    20. Hakim Hammadou & Claire Papaix, 2015. "Policy packages for modal shift and CO2 reduction in Lille, France," Working Papers 1501, Chaire Economie du climat.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00866437. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.