IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/riskan/v39y2019i5p959-967.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Addressing Climate Change as an Emerging Risk to Infrastructure Systems

Author

Listed:
  • Julie Shortridge
  • Janey Smith Camp

Abstract

The consequences that climate change could have on infrastructure systems are potentially severe but highly uncertain. This should make risk analysis a natural framework for climate adaptation in infrastructure systems. However, many aspects of climate change, such as weak background knowledge and societal controversy, make it an emerging risk where traditional approaches for risk assessment and management cannot be confidently employed. A number of research developments aimed at addressing these issues have emerged in recent years, such as the development of probabilistic climate projections, climate services, and robust decision frameworks. However, additional research is needed to improve the suitability of these methods for infrastructure planning. In this perspective, we outline some of the challenges in addressing climate change risks to infrastructure and summarize new developments aimed at meeting these challenges. We end by highlighting needs for future research, many of which could be well‐served by expertise within the risk analysis community.

Suggested Citation

  • Julie Shortridge & Janey Smith Camp, 2019. "Addressing Climate Change as an Emerging Risk to Infrastructure Systems," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(5), pages 959-967, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:39:y:2019:i:5:p:959-967
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.13234
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13234
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/risa.13234?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephane Hallegatte & Colin Green & Robert J. Nicholls & Jan Corfee-Morlot, 2013. "Future flood losses in major coastal cities," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(9), pages 802-806, September.
    2. Chabane Mazri, 2017. "(Re) Defining Emerging Risks," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(11), pages 2053-2065, November.
    3. Julie Shortridge & Seth Guikema & Ben Zaitchik, 2017. "Robust decision making in data scarce contexts: addressing data and model limitations for infrastructure planning under transient climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 140(2), pages 323-337, January.
    4. Marjolijn Haasnoot & Hans Middelkoop & Astrid Offermans & Eelco Beek & Willem Deursen, 2012. "Exploring pathways for sustainable water management in river deltas in a changing environment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 115(3), pages 795-819, December.
    5. Stanley Kaplan & B. John Garrick, 1981. "On The Quantitative Definition of Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(1), pages 11-27, March.
    6. Robert J. Lempert & David G. Groves & Steven W. Popper & Steve C. Bankes, 2006. "A General, Analytic Method for Generating Robust Strategies and Narrative Scenarios," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(4), pages 514-528, April.
    7. Howard Kunreuther & Geoffrey Heal & Myles Allen & Ottmar Edenhofer & Christopher B. Field & Gary Yohe, 2013. "Risk management and climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(5), pages 447-450, May.
    8. Peter Guttorp & Stephan R. Sain & Christopher K. Wikle & David B. Stephenson & Matthew Collins & Jonathan C. Rougier & Richard E. Chandler, 2012. "Statistical problems in the probabilistic prediction of climate change," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 364-372, August.
    9. Robert B. Cumming, 1981. "Is Risk Assessment A Science?," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(1), pages 1-3, March.
    10. Aven, Terje, 2008. "A semi-quantitative approach to risk analysis, as an alternative to QRAs," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(6), pages 790-797.
    11. Flage, R. & Aven, T., 2015. "Emerging risk – Conceptual definition and a relation to black swan type of events," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 61-67.
    12. Kevin E. Trenberth & John T. Fasullo & Theodore G. Shepherd, 2015. "Attribution of climate extreme events," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(8), pages 725-730, August.
    13. Julie E. Shortridge & Seth D. Guikema, 2016. "Scenario Discovery with Multiple Criteria: An Evaluation of the Robust Decision‐Making Framework for Climate Change Adaptation," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(12), pages 2298-2312, December.
    14. Raffaello Cervigni & Rikard Liden & James E. Neumann & Kenneth M. Strzepek, 2015. "Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Africa's Infrastructure," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 21875, December.
    15. Susan Hanson & Robert Nicholls & N. Ranger & S. Hallegatte & J. Corfee-Morlot & C. Herweijer & J. Chateau, 2011. "A global ranking of port cities with high exposure to climate extremes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 89-111, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mikhail Chester & Mounir El Asmar & Samantha Hayes & Cheryl Desha, 2021. "Post-Disaster Infrastructure Delivery for Resilience," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-18, March.
    2. Mikhail V. Chester, 2020. "Industrial ecology in support of climate change adaptation," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 24(2), pages 271-275, April.
    3. Julia Reis & Julie Shortridge, 2020. "Impact of Uncertainty Parameter Distribution on Robust Decision Making Outcomes for Climate Change Adaptation under Deep Uncertainty," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(3), pages 494-511, March.
    4. Suo, Weilan & Wang, Lin & Li, Jianping, 2021. "Probabilistic risk assessment for interdependent critical infrastructures: A scenario-driven dynamic stochastic model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Julie E. Shortridge & Benjamin F. Zaitchik, 2018. "Characterizing climate change risks by linking robust decision frameworks and uncertain probabilistic projections," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(3), pages 525-539, December.
    2. Julia Reis & Julie Shortridge, 2020. "Impact of Uncertainty Parameter Distribution on Robust Decision Making Outcomes for Climate Change Adaptation under Deep Uncertainty," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(3), pages 494-511, March.
    3. Dittrich, Ruth & Wreford, Anita & Moran, Dominic, 2016. "A survey of decision-making approaches for climate change adaptation: Are robust methods the way forward?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 79-89.
    4. Julia Reis & Julie Shortridge, 2022. "Robust decision outcomes with induced correlations in climatic and economic parameters," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 1-23, January.
    5. Sam Fankhauser, 2017. "Adaptation to Climate Change," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 9(1), pages 209-230, October.
    6. Adriana Kocornik-Mina & Thomas K. J. McDermott & Guy Michaels & Ferdinand Rauch, 2020. "Flooded Cities," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 35-66, April.
    7. Matthias Garschagen & Gusti Ayu Ketut Surtiari & Mostapha Harb, 2018. "Is Jakarta’s New Flood Risk Reduction Strategy Transformational?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-18, August.
    8. William G. Bennett & Harshinie Karunarathna & Yunqing Xuan & Muhammad S. B. Kusuma & Mohammad Farid & Arno A. Kuntoro & Harkunti P. Rahayu & Benedictus Kombaitan & Deni Septiadi & Tri N. A. Kesuma & R, 2023. "Modelling compound flooding: a case study from Jakarta, Indonesia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 118(1), pages 277-305, August.
    9. Elmar Kriegler & Brian-C O'Neill & Stéphane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Richard-H Moss & Robert Lempert & Thomas J Wilbanks, 2010. "Socio-economic Scenario Development for Climate Change Analysis," CIRED Working Papers hal-00866437, HAL.
    10. D. J. Rasmussen & Scott Kulp & Robert E. Kopp & Michael Oppenheimer & Benjamin H. Strauss, 2022. "Popular extreme sea level metrics can better communicate impacts," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 1-17, February.
    11. Zio, E., 2018. "The future of risk assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 176-190.
    12. Hurford, A.P. & Harou, J.J. & Bonzanigo, L. & Ray, P.A. & Karki, P. & Bharati, L. & Chinnasamy, P., 2020. "Efficient and robust hydropower system design under uncertainty - A demonstration in Nepal," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    13. Yus Budiyono & Jeroen Aerts & JanJaap Brinkman & Muh Marfai & Philip Ward, 2015. "Flood risk assessment for delta mega-cities: a case study of Jakarta," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(1), pages 389-413, January.
    14. Tian Liu & Peijun Shi & Jian Fang, 2022. "Spatiotemporal variation in global floods with different affected areas and the contribution of influencing factors to flood-induced mortality (1985–2019)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(3), pages 2601-2625, April.
    15. Luciano Raso & Jan Kwakkel & Jos Timmermans, 2019. "Assessing the Capacity of Adaptive Policy Pathways to Adapt on Time by Mapping Trigger Values to Their Outcomes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-16, March.
    16. Toman Michael, 2014. "The need for multiple types of information to inform climate change assessment," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, De Gruyter, vol. 5(3), pages 469-485, December.
    17. Michael Greenberg & Anthony Cox & Vicki Bier & Jim Lambert & Karen Lowrie & Warner North & Michael Siegrist & Felicia Wu, 2020. "Risk Analysis: Celebrating the Accomplishments and Embracing Ongoing Challenges," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(S1), pages 2113-2127, November.
    18. Hari Bansha Dulal, 2019. "Cities in Asia: how are they adapting to climate change?," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 9(1), pages 13-24, March.
    19. Nikolaos P Ventikos & Konstantinos Louzis, 2023. "Developing next generation marine risk analysis for ships: Bio-inspiration for building immunity," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 237(2), pages 405-424, April.
    20. Judy Lawrence & Robert Bell & Adolf Stroombergen, 2019. "A Hybrid Process to Address Uncertainty and Changing Climate Risk in Coastal Areas Using Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Planning, Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis & Real Options Analysis: A New Zealand App," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-18, January.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:39:y:2019:i:5:p:959-967. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1539-6924 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.