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Building SSPs for Climate Policy Analysis : A Scenario Elicitation Methodology to Map the Space of Possible Future Challenges to Mitigation and Adaptation

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  • Julie Rozenberg

    (CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement)

  • Céline Guivarch

    (CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement)

  • R.J. Lempert

    (RAND Corp., 1776 Main Street, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 - affiliation inconnue)

  • Stéphane Hallegatte

    (CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement, CNRM - Centre national de recherches météorologiques - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - OMP - Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées - CNES - Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Météo-France - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - Météo-France)

Abstract

The scientific community is now developing a new set of scenarios, referred to as Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) to replace the SRES scenarios. To be used to investigate adaptation and mitigation, SSPs need to be contrasted along two axes: challenges to mitigation, and challenges to adaptation. This paper proposes a methodology to develop SSPs with a "backward" approach. The methodology is based on (i) an a priori identification of potential drivers of mitigation and adaptation challenges; (ii) a modelling exercise to transform these drivers into a large set of scenarios; (iii) an a posteriori selection of a few SSPs among these scenarios, such that they cover the uncertainty space in terms of challenges to adaptation and mitigation. This methodology is applied to the selection of a few SSPs, but it could also be applied to any specific decisions faced by decision-makers. From a large database of runs built by many models, the methodology would allow selecting the most relevant scenarios for a specific decision, i.e. scenarios that best predict when the analyzed choice performs poorly or well.

Suggested Citation

  • Julie Rozenberg & Céline Guivarch & R.J. Lempert & Stéphane Hallegatte, 2012. "Building SSPs for Climate Policy Analysis : A Scenario Elicitation Methodology to Map the Space of Possible Future Challenges to Mitigation and Adaptation," CIRED Working Papers hal-00793927, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:ciredw:hal-00793927
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-enpc.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00793927
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    2. Evelina Trutnevyte & Céline Guivarch & Robert Lempert & Neil Strachan, 2016. "Reinvigorating the scenario technique to expand uncertainty consideration," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 373-379, April.
    3. Nebojsa Nakicenovic & Robert Lempert & Anthony Janetos, 2014. "A Framework for the Development of New Socio-economic Scenarios for Climate Change Research: Introductory Essay," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 351-361, February.
    4. Distefano, Tiziano & Kelly, Scott, 2017. "Are we in deep water? Water scarcity and its limits to economic growth," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 130-147.
    5. Balint, T. & Lamperti, F. & Mandel, A. & Napoletano, M. & Roventini, A. & Sapio, A., 2017. "Complexity and the Economics of Climate Change: A Survey and a Look Forward," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 252-265.
    6. Guivarch, Céline & Monjon, Stéphanie, 2017. "Identifying the main uncertainty drivers of energy security in a low-carbon world: The case of Europe," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 530-541.
    7. Li, Jun & Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem & Cassen, Christophe, 2017. "Aligning domestic policies with international coordination in a post-Paris global climate regime: A case for China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 258-274.
    8. Steinmann, Patrick & Auping, Willem L. & Kwakkel, Jan H., 2020. "Behavior-based scenario discovery using time series clustering," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    9. Hidayatno, Akhmad & Jafino, Bramka Arga & Setiawan, Andri D. & Purwanto, Widodo Wahyu, 2020. "When and why does transition fail? A model-based identification of adoption barriers and policy vulnerabilities for transition to natural gas vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    10. Sebastiaan Greeven & Oscar Kraan & Émile Chappin & Jan H. Kwakkel, 2016. "The Emergence of Climate Change Mitigation Action by Society: An Agent-Based Scenario Discovery Study," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 19(3), pages 1-9.
    11. Balint, T. & Lamperti, F. & Mandel, A. & Napoletano, M. & Roventini, A. & Sapio, A., 2017. "Complexity and the Economics of Climate Change: A Survey and a Look Forward," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 252-265.
    12. Kwakkel, J.H. & Cunningham, S.C., 2016. "Improving scenario discovery by bagging random boxes," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 124-134.
    13. Tomas Balint & Francesco Lamperti & Mauro Napoletano & Antoine Mandel & Andrea Roventini & Alessandro Sapio, 2016. "Complexity and the Economics of Climate Change: a Survey and a Look Forward," Working Papers hal-03459291, HAL.
    14. Noémie Neverre & Patrice Dumas, 2016. "Projecting Basin-Scale Distributed Irrigation and Domestic Water Demands and Values: A Generic Method for Large-Scale Modeling," Water Economics and Policy (WEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(04), pages 1-28, December.
    15. Céline Guivarch & Julie Rozenberg & Vanessa Schweizer, 2016. "The diversity of socio-economic pathways and CO2 emissions scenarios: Insights from the investigation of a scenarios database," Post-Print halshs-01292901, HAL.
    16. Yeonjoo Kim & Eun-Sung Chung & Sang-Mook Jun, 2015. "Iterative Framework for Robust Reclaimed Wastewater Allocation in a Changing Environment Using Multi-Criteria Decision Making," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(2), pages 295-311, January.
    17. Li, Francis G.N. & Trutnevyte, Evelina, 2017. "Investment appraisal of cost-optimal and near-optimal pathways for the UK electricity sector transition to 2050," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 89-109.
    18. Stella Apostolaki & Phoebe Koundouri & Nikitas Pittis, 2019. "Using a systemic approach to address the requirement for Integrated Water Resource Management within the Water Framework Directive," DEOS Working Papers 1910, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    19. Yamaura, Koichi & Sakaue, Shin & Washida, Toyoaki, 2017. "Regional and Sectoral Impacts of Global Warming and Agricultural Production: A Case of CGE Analyses," Japanese Journal of Agricultural Economics (formerly Japanese Journal of Rural Economics), Agricultural Economics Society of Japan (AESJ), vol. 19.
    20. Ritchie, Justin & Dowlatabadi, Hadi, 2017. "Why do climate change scenarios return to coal?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 140(P1), pages 1276-1291.
    21. Stephane Hallegatte & Mook Bangalore & Laura Bonzanigo & Marianne Fay & Tamaro Kane & Ulf Narloch & Julie Rozenberg & David Treguer & Adrien Vogt-Schilb, 2016. "Shock Waves," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 22787, December.
    22. Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Nigel Arnell & Timothy Carter & Jae Edmonds & Elmar Kriegler & Ritu Mathur & Brian O’Neill & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren & Timm Zwickel, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 363-372, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    shared socio-economic pathways; IPCC; robust-decision making; scenario methodology;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • O38 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Government Policy

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