Climate policies as a hedge against the uncertainty on future oil supply
Despite the inextricable link between oil scarcity and climate change, the interplay between these two issues is paradoxically an underworked area. This article uses a global energy-economy model to address the link between future oil supply and climate change and assesses in a common framework both the costs of climate policies and oil scarcity. It shows that, in the context of a limited and uncertain amount of ultimately recoverable oil resources, climate policies reduce the world vulnerability to peak oil. Climate policies, therefore, appear as a hedging strategy against the uncertainty on oil resources, in addition to their main aim of avoiding dangerous climate change. This co-benefit is estimated at the net present value of US$11,500 billion. Eventually, reducing the risk of future economic losses due to oil scarcity may appear as a significant side-benefit of climate policies to many decision-makers.
|Date of creation:||25 Jun 2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in Climatic Change, Springer Verlag, 2010, 101 (3-4), pp.663-668. <10.1007/s10584-010-9868-8>|
|Note:||View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-enpc.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00667118|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/|
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- Jean Charles Hourcade & Olivier Sassi & Renaud Crassous & Vincent Gitz & Henri Waisman & Céline Guivarch, 2010.
"IMACLIM-R: a modelling framework to simulate sustainable development pathways,"
- Olivier Sassi & Renaud Crassous & Jean-Charles Hourcade & Vincent Gitz & Henri Waisman & Celine Guivarch, 2010. "IMACLIM-R: a modelling framework to simulate sustainable development pathways," International Journal of Global Environmental Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 10(1/2), pages 5-24.
- Jean Charles Hourcade & Mark Jaccard & Chris Bataille & Frédéric Ghersi, 2006. "Hybrid Modeling: New Answers to Old Challenges," Post-Print halshs-00471234, HAL.
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