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Building world narratives for climate change impact, adaptation and vulnerability analyses

Author

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  • Stéphane Hallegatte

    (CNRM-GAME - Groupe d'étude de l'atmosphère météorologique - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - Météo France - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CIRED - Centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - AgroParisTech - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Przyluski Valentin

    (CIRED - Centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - AgroParisTech - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Adrien Vogt-Schilb

    () (CIRED - Centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - AgroParisTech - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

The impacts of climate change on human systems depend not only on the level of emissions but also on how inherently vulnerable these systems are to the changing climate. The large uncertainties over future development and structure of societies and economies mean that the assessment of climate change efects is complex. One way to deal with this complexity is by using scenario analysis that takes account of these socio-economic diferences. The challenge is to identify the dimensions along which societies and economies evolve over time in such a way as to cover sufciently diferent vulnerability patterns. This conceptual efort is critical for the development of informative scenarios. Here, we identify three dimensions that take into account the most relevant factors that defne the vulnerability of human systems to climate change and their ability to adapt to it.

Suggested Citation

  • Stéphane Hallegatte & Przyluski Valentin & Adrien Vogt-Schilb, 2011. "Building world narratives for climate change impact, adaptation and vulnerability analyses," Post-Print hal-00618688, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00618688
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1135
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-enpc.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00618688
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    File URL: https://hal-enpc.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00618688/document
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chen, Robert S. & Kates, Robert W., 1994. "World food security: prospects and trends," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 192-208, April.
    2. Stéphane Hallegatte & Jan Corfee-Morlot, 2011. "Understanding climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation at city scale: an introduction," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 1-12, January.
    3. Susmita Dasgupta & Benoit Laplante & Hua Wang & David Wheeler, 2002. "Confronting the Environmental Kuznets Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 147-168, Winter.
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    5. Junichi Fujino, Rajesh Nair, Mikiko Kainuma, Toshihiko Masui and Yuzuru Matsuoka, 2006. "Multi-gas Mitigation Analysis on Stabilization Scenarios Using Aim Global Model," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 343-354.
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    Cited by:

    1. Julie Rozenberg & Céline Guivarch & Robert Lempert & Stéphane Hallegatte, 2014. "Building SSPs for climate policy analysis: a scenario elicitation methodology to map the space of possible future challenges to mitigation and adaptation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 509-522, February.
    2. Elmar Kriegler & Jae Edmonds & Stéphane Hallegatte & Kristie Ebi & Tom Kram & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared climate policy assumptions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 401-414, February.
    3. Callesen, Ingeborg, 2016. "Biodiversity and ecosystem services in life cycle impact assessment – Inventory objects or impact categories?," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 22(PA), pages 94-103.
    4. Bing Wang & Su-Yan Pan & Ruo-Yu Ke & Ke Wang & Yi-Ming Wei, 2014. "An overview of climate change vulnerability: a bibliometric analysis based on Web of Science database," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(3), pages 1649-1666, December.
    5. Vincent Viguie & Stéphane Hallegatte & Julie Rozenberg, 2014. "Downscaling long term socio-economic scenarios at city scale: A case study on Paris," Post-Print hal-01136217, HAL.
    6. Giordano, Thierry, 2012. "Adaptive planning for climate resilient long-lived infrastructures," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 80-89.
    7. Michael Oppenheimer, 2013. "Climate change impacts: accounting for the human response," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(3), pages 439-449, April.
    8. Brian O’Neill & Elmar Kriegler & Keywan Riahi & Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Timothy Carter & Ritu Mathur & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 387-400, February.
    9. Bas Ruijven & Marc Levy & Arun Agrawal & Frank Biermann & Joern Birkmann & Timothy Carter & Kristie Ebi & Matthias Garschagen & Bryan Jones & Roger Jones & Eric Kemp-Benedict & Marcel Kok & Kasper Kok, 2014. "Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 481-494, February.
    10. James Ford & Clara Champalle & Pamela Tudge & Rudy Riedlsperger & Trevor Bell & Erik Sparling, 2015. "Evaluating climate change vulnerability assessments: a case study of research focusing on the built environment in northern Canada," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 20(8), pages 1267-1288, December.
    11. Viguié, Vincent & Hallegatte, Stéphane & Rozenberg, Julie, 2014. "Downscaling long term socio-economic scenarios at city scale: A case study on Paris," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 305-324.
    12. Joern Birkmann & Susan Cutter & Dale Rothman & Torsten Welle & Matthias Garschagen & Bas Ruijven & Brian O’Neill & Benjamin Preston & Stefan Kienberger & Omar Cardona & Tiodora Siagian & Deny Hidayati, 2015. "Scenarios for vulnerability: opportunities and constraints in the context of climate change and disaster risk," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 133(1), pages 53-68, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    impacts; vulnerability; adaptation; climate change; scenario; prospective; narratives; vulnérabilité; changement climatique;

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