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Scenarios for vulnerability: opportunities and constraints in the context of climate change and disaster risk

Author

Listed:
  • Joern Birkmann

    ()

  • Susan Cutter
  • Dale Rothman
  • Torsten Welle
  • Matthias Garschagen
  • Bas Ruijven
  • Brian O’Neill
  • Benjamin Preston
  • Stefan Kienberger

    ()

  • Omar Cardona
  • Tiodora Siagian
  • Deny Hidayati
  • Neysa Setiadi
  • Claudia Binder
  • Barry Hughes
  • Roger Pulwarty

Abstract

Most scientific assessments for climate change adaptation and risk reduction are based on scenarios for climatic change. Scenarios for socio-economic development, particularly in terms of vulnerability and adaptive capacity, are largely lacking. This paper focuses on the utility of socio-economic scenarios for vulnerability, risk and adaptation research. The paper introduces the goals and functions of scenarios in general and reflects on the current global debate around shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). It examines the options and constraints of scenario methods for risk and vulnerability assessments in the context of climate change and natural hazards. Two case studies are used to contrast the opportunities and current constraints in scenario methods at different scales: the global WorldRiskIndex, based on quantitative data and indicators; and a local participatory scenario development process in Jakarta, showing a qualitative approach. The juxtaposition of a quantitative approach with global data and a qualitative-participatory local approach provides new insights on how different methods and scenario techniques can be applied in vulnerability and risk research. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Joern Birkmann & Susan Cutter & Dale Rothman & Torsten Welle & Matthias Garschagen & Bas Ruijven & Brian O’Neill & Benjamin Preston & Stefan Kienberger & Omar Cardona & Tiodora Siagian & Deny Hidayati, 2015. "Scenarios for vulnerability: opportunities and constraints in the context of climate change and disaster risk," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 133(1), pages 53-68, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:133:y:2015:i:1:p:53-68
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0913-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. B. Preston & C. Brooke & T. Measham & T. Smith & R. Gorddard, 2009. "Igniting change in local government: lessons learned from a bushfire vulnerability assessment," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 251-283, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. James D. Ford & Tristan Pearce & Graham McDowell & Lea Berrang-Ford & Jesse S. Sayles & Ella Belfer, 2018. "Vulnerability and its discontents: the past, present, and future of climate change vulnerability research," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(2), pages 189-203, November.
    2. Christoph Clar & Lukas Löschner & Ralf Nordbeck & Tatjana Fischer & Thomas Thaler, 2021. "Population dynamics and natural hazard risk management: conceptual and practical linkages for the case of Austrian policy making," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 105(2), pages 1765-1796, January.
    3. Msafiri Y. Mkonda & Xinhua He, 2017. "Are Rainfall and Temperature Really Changing? Farmer’s Perceptions, Meteorological Data, and Policy Implications in the Tanzanian Semi-Arid Zone," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(8), pages 1-16, August.
    4. Joern Birkmann & Reinhard Mechler, 2015. "Advancing climate adaptation and risk management. New insights, concepts and approaches: what have we learned from the SREX and the AR5 processes?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 133(1), pages 1-6, November.
    5. Hans Visser & Arthur Petersen & Willem Ligtvoet, 2014. "On the relation between weather-related disaster impacts, vulnerability and climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(3), pages 461-477, August.
    6. Kirsten Halsnæs & Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen & Per Skougaard Kaspersen, 2018. "Climate change risks for severe storms in developing countries in the context of poverty and inequality in Cambodia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 94(1), pages 261-278, October.
    7. Ji-Myong Kim & Taehui Kim & Kiyoung Son & Sang-Guk Yum & Sungjin Ahn, 2019. "Measuring Vulnerability of Typhoon in Residential Facilities: Focusing on Typhoon Maemi in South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(10), pages 1-11, May.

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