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China's potential SO2 emissions from coal by 2050

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  • Qian, Yuan
  • Scherer, Laura
  • Tukker, Arnold
  • Behrens, Paul

Abstract

Coal is the dominant emitter of Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) in some countries, comprising ~92% of total emissions in China. Mitigation of these emissions can be driven by a number of factors, such as energy-efficiency improvements, installation of scrubbers, and use of renewable energy. This study evaluates the historical reduction of overall SO2 emission intensity from coal consumption for 30 Chinese provinces between 2000 and 2016. These trends are further combined with expected coal use from 2020 to 2050 along with scenarios of future power generation to explore China's future SO2 emissions. The results show that provinces starting with a high emission intensity in general have higher reduction rates. By 2050, China's potential SO2 emissions are between 3.9 Mt and 4.1 Mt, and industry mitigation efforts, such as the installation of scrubbers, appear to contribute most to abatement. Additionally, this study estimates the impact on global average temperatures from SO2 mitigation due to the adoption of renewables in the electric sector using the MAGICC model and find an increase of ~0.01 °C by 2050. Considering the reduced abatement opportunities of desulfurization technologies and climate change effects of coal combustion, renewable energy provides the most promising option for SO2 mitigation.

Suggested Citation

  • Qian, Yuan & Scherer, Laura & Tukker, Arnold & Behrens, Paul, 2020. "China's potential SO2 emissions from coal by 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:147:y:2020:i:c:s0301421520305735
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111856
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