IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cid/wpfacu/226.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Politically Feasible Emissions Targets to Attain 460 ppm CO2 Concentrations

Author

Listed:
  • Valentina Bosetti
  • Jeffrey Frankel

Abstract

A new climate change treaty must address three current gaps: the absence of emissions targets extending far into the future, the absence of participation by the United States, China, and other developing countries, and the absence of reason to expect compliance. Moreover, to be politically acceptable, a post-Kyoto treaty must recognize certain constraints regarding country-by-country economic costs. This article presents a framework for assigning quantitative emissions allocations across countries, one budget period at a time, through a two-stage plan: (i) China and other developing countries accept targets at business-as-usual (BAU)levels in the coming budget period, and, during the same period, the US agrees to cuts belowBAU; (ii) all countries are asked to make further cuts in the future in accordance with a formula which includes a Progressive Reductions Factor, a Latecomer Catch-up Factor, and a Gradual Equalization Factor. An earlier proposal (Frankel 2009) for specific parameter values in the formulas achieved the environmental goal that CO2 concentrations plateau at 500 ppm by 2100. It met our political constraints by keeping every country’s economic cost below thresholds of Y=1% of income in Present Discounted Value, and X=5% of income in the worst period. The framework proposed in this article attains a stricter concentration goal of 460 ppm CO2, but only by loosening the political constraints.

Suggested Citation

  • Valentina Bosetti & Jeffrey Frankel, 2011. "Politically Feasible Emissions Targets to Attain 460 ppm CO2 Concentrations," CID Working Papers 226, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
  • Handle: RePEc:cid:wpfacu:226
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.hks.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/centers/cid/files/publications/faculty-working-papers/226.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Manne, Alan & Mendelsohn, Robert & Richels, Richard, 1995. "MERGE : A model for evaluating regional and global effects of GHG reduction policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 17-34, January.
    2. Randall Lutter, 2000. "Developing Countries' Greenhouse Emmissions: Uncertainty and Implications for Participation in the Kyoto Protocol," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 93-120.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Joachim Schleich & Elisabeth Dütschke & Claudia Schwirplies & Andreas Ziegler, 2016. "Citizens' perceptions of justice in international climate policy: an empirical analysis," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 50-67, January.
    2. Aldy, Joseph Edgar, 2015. "Evaluating Mitigation Effort: Tools and Institutions for Assessing Nationally Determined Contributions," Scholarly Articles 23936083, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
    3. Joseph E. Aldy & William A. Pizer & Keigo Akimoto, 2017. "Comparing emissions mitigation efforts across countries," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 501-515, May.
    4. Frédéric Branger, Philippe Quirion, Julien Chevallier, 2017. "Carbon Leakage and Competitiveness of Cement and Steel Industries Under the EU ETS: Much Ado About Nothing," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    5. Aldy, Joseph E. & Pizer, William A. & Akimoto, Keigo, 2015. "A natural outcome of the emerging pledge and review approach to international climate change policy is the interest in comparing mitigation efforts among countries. Domestic publics and stakeholders w," Discussion Papers dp-15-32, Resources For the Future.
    6. Aldy, Joseph Edgar & Pizer, William, 2016. "Alternative Metrics for Comparing Domestic Climate Change Mitigation Efforts and the Emerging International Climate Policy Architecture," Scholarly Articles 22808338, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
    7. Riahi, Keywan & Kriegler, Elmar & Johnson, Nils & Bertram, Christoph & den Elzen, Michel & Eom, Jiyong & Schaeffer, Michiel & Edmonds, Jae & Isaac, Morna & Krey, Volker & Longden, Thomas & Luderer, Gu, 2015. "Locked into Copenhagen pledges — Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 8-23.
    8. Todd Sandler, 2017. "Environmental cooperation: contrasting international environmental agreements," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(2), pages 345-364.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; Concentrations; Copenhagen; Costs; Developing Countries; Emissions; Equity; Global Climate; Global Warming; Greenhouse Gas; International; Kyoto; Political; Targets; Treat;

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cid:wpfacu:226. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Chuck McKenney). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/ciharus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.