IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/14876.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

An Elaborated Global Climate Policy Architecture: Specific Formulas and Emission Targets for All Countries in All Decades

Author

Listed:
  • Jeffrey A. Frankel

Abstract

This paper analyzes a detailed plan to set quantitative national limits on emissions of greenhouse gases, following along the lines of the Kyoto Protocol. It is designed to fill in the most serious gaps: the absence of targets extending as far as 2100, the absence of participation by the United States and developing countries, and the absence of reason to think that countries will abide by commitments. The plan elaborates on the idea of a framework of formulas that can assign quantitative limits across countries, one budget period at a time. Unlike other century-long paths of emission targets that are based purely on science (concentration goals) or ethics (equal rights per capita) or economics (cost-benefit optimization), this plan is based partly on politics. Three political constraints are particularly important. (1) Developing countries are not asked to bear any cost in the early years. (2) Thereafter, they are not asked to make any sacrifice that is different in kind or degree than was made by those countries that went before them, with due allowance for differences in incomes. (3) No country is asked to accept an ex ante target that costs it more than, say, 1% of GDP in present value, or more than, say, 5% of GDP in any single budget period. They would not agree to ex ante targets that turned out to have such high costs, nor abide by them ex post. An announced target path that implies a future violation of these constraints will not be credible, and thus will not provide the necessary signals to firms today. The idea is that (i) China and other developing countries are asked to accept targets at BAU in the coming budget period, the same in which the US first agrees to cuts below BAU; and (ii) all countries are asked to make further cuts in the future in accordance with a formula which sums up a Progressive Reductions Factor, a Latecomer Catch-up Factor, and a Gradual Equalization Factor. The paper tries out specific values for the parameters in the formulas (parameters that govern the extent of progressivity and equity, and the speed with which latecomers must eventually catch up). The resulting target paths for emissions are run through the WITCH model. It does turn out to be possible to achieve the carbon abatement goal (concentrations of 500 PPM in 2100) while simultaneously obeying the economic/political constraint (no country suffers a disproportionate loss in GDP). Preliminary efforts to achieve a target of 450 ppm have so far been unable to do so without violating the cost constraint.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2009. "An Elaborated Global Climate Policy Architecture: Specific Formulas and Emission Targets for All Countries in All Decades," NBER Working Papers 14876, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14876
    Note: EEE
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w14876.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Seidman, Laurence & Lewis, Kenneth, 2009. "Compensations and contributions under an international carbon treaty," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 341-350, May.
    2. Manne, Alan & Mendelsohn, Robert & Richels, Richard, 1995. "MERGE : A model for evaluating regional and global effects of GHG reduction policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 17-34, January.
    3. Randall Lutter, 2000. "Developing Countries' Greenhouse Emmissions: Uncertainty and Implications for Participation in the Kyoto Protocol," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 93-120.
    4. Warwick McKibbin & Adele Morris & Peter Wilcoxen, 2008. "Expecting The Unexpected: Macroeconomic Volatility And Climate Policy," CAMA Working Papers 2008-35, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bowen, Alex, 2011. "Raising finance to support developing country action: some economic considerations," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 37572, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Amigues, Jean-Pierre & Chakravorty, Ujjayant & Moreaux, Michel, 2010. "The Effect of Local and Global Pollution Mandates on a Nonrenewable Resource," Working Papers 2010-2, University of Alberta, Department of Economics, revised 01 Oct 2010.
    3. Narita, Daiju & Tol, Richard S. J. & Anthoff, David, 2009. "International Climate Policy and Regional Welfare Weights," Papers WP332, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    4. Zhongxiang Zhang, 2011. "In what format and under what timeframe would China take on climate commitments? A roadmap to 2050," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 245-259, September.
    5. Valentina Bosetti & Jeffrey Frankel, 2011. "Sustainable Cooperation in Global Climate Policy: Specific Formulas and Emission Targets to Build on Copenhagen and Cancun," Working Papers 2011.66, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    6. Valentina Bosetti & Jeffrey Frankel, 2009. "Global Climate Policy Architecture and Political Feasibility: Specific Formulas and Emission Targets to Attain 460 ppm CO2 Concentrations," Working Papers 2009.92, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    7. Amigues, Jean-Pierre & Chakravorty, Ujjayant & Moreaux, Michel, 2009. "Think Globally, Act Locally? Stock vs Flow Regulation of a Fossil Fuel," TSE Working Papers 09-115, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    8. Joseph E. Aldy & Alan J. Krupnick & Richard G. Newell & Ian W. H. Parry & William A. Pizer, 2010. "Designing Climate Mitigation Policy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(4), pages 903-934, December.
    9. Alex Bowen, 2011. "Raising climate finance to support developing country action: some economic considerations," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 1020-1036, May.
    10. Nancy Birdsall & Dan Hammer & Arvind Subramanian, 2015. "Identifying a Fair Deal on Climate Change," Working Papers id:7830, eSocialSciences.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14876. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.