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Developing Countries' Greenhouse Emmissions: Uncertainty and Implications for Participation in the Kyoto Protocol

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  • Randall Lutter

Abstract

Developing countries can participate in the Kyoto Protocol to limit greenhouse gas emissions by adopting national emissions limits. Such limits could offer economic gains to developing countries, cost savings to industrialized countries, and environmental benefits. They could also address concerns of the U. S. Senate. On the other hand, uncertainty about greenhouse gas emissions in developing countries is so great that emissions limits may impose substantial costs if they turn out to be unexpectedly stringent. To manage risks arising from emissions limits, developing countries should index any emissions limits to variables that predict emissions in the absence of limits. This paper presents such an index-similar to one recently adopted by Argentina-and develops estimates showing that it could lower the risk of economic losses to developing countries from about 40 percent to about 35 percent.

Suggested Citation

  • Randall Lutter, 2000. "Developing Countries' Greenhouse Emmissions: Uncertainty and Implications for Participation in the Kyoto Protocol," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 93-120.
  • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:2000v21-04-a04
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    Cited by:

    1. Valentina Bosetti & Jeffrey Frankel, 2014. "Sustainable Cooperation In Global Climate Policy: Specific Formulas And Emission Targets," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(03), pages 1-34.
    2. Stavins, Robert, 2004. "Can an Effective Global Climate Treaty be Based on Sound Science, Rational Economics, and Pragmatic Politics?," Working Paper Series rwp04-020, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    3. Sheila M. Olmstead & Robert N. Stavins, 2012. "Three Key Elements of a Post-2012 International Climate Policy Architecture," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 6(1), pages 65-85.
    4. Olmstead, Sheila M. & Stavins, Robert N., 2009. "An Expanded Three-Part Architecture for Post-2012 International Climate Policy," Working Paper Series rwp09-036, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    5. Fischer, Carolyn & Herrnstadt, Evan & Morgenstern, Richard, 2009. "Understanding errors in EIA projections of energy demand," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 198-209, August.
    6. Schmidt, Robert C. & Marschinski, Robert, 2010. "Can China benefit from adopting a binding emissions target?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3763-3770, July.
    7. Wang, Mingxi & Wang, Mingrong & Wang, Shouyang, 2012. "Optimal investment and uncertainty on China's carbon emission abatement," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 871-877.
    8. repec:wsi:ccexxx:v:08:y:2017:i:04:n:s2010007817500130 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Valentina Bosetti & Jeffrey Frankel, 2012. "Politically Feasible Emissions Targets to Attain 460 ppm CO 2 Concentrations," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 6(1), pages 86-109.
    10. Vazhayil, Joy P. & Balasubramanian, R., 2010. "Copenhagen commitments and implications: A comparative analysis of India and China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 7442-7450, November.
    11. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2009. "An Elaborated Global Climate Policy Architecture: Specific Formulas and Emission Targets for All Countries in All Decades," NBER Working Papers 14876, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Frank Jotzo, 2006. "Quantifying uncertainties for emission targets," Economics and Environment Network Working Papers 0603, Australian National University, Economics and Environment Network.
    13. Joseph E. Aldy, 2007. "Energy and Carbon Dynamics at Advanced Stages of Development: An Analysis of the U.S. States, 1960-1999," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 91-112.
    14. Scott Barrett & Robert Stavins, 2003. "Increasing Participation and Compliance in International Climate Change Agreements," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 349-376, December.
    15. Joseph E. Aldy, 2007. "Divergence in State-Level Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 83(3), pages 353-369.
    16. Vennemo, Haakon & Aunan, Kristin & Jianwu, He & Tao, Hu & Shantong, Li, 2009. "Benefits and costs to China of three different climate treaties," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 139-160, August.
    17. Catton, Will, 2009. "Dynamic carbon caps. Splitting the bill: A fairer solution post-Kyoto?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5636-5649, December.
    18. Govinda Timilsina & Ram Shrestha, 2002. "General equilibrium analysis of economic and environmental effects of carbon tax in a developing country: case of Thailand," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 5(3), pages 179-211, September.
    19. Chunhua Wang, 2016. "Regional Economic Development, Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions in China," EEPSEA Research Report rr20160338, Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia (EEPSEA), revised Mar 2016.
    20. Mariana Conte Grand, 2016. "GDP-related emission targets weaknesses: the case of Argentina," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 599, Universidad del CEMA.
    21. Mariana Conte Grand, 2016. "Different Types of Nationally Determined Contributions to Address Climate Change," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 595, Universidad del CEMA.
    22. Edvardsson Björnberg, Karin, 2013. "Rational climate mitigation goals," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 285-292.
    23. Wang, Chunhua, 2013. "Differential output growth across regions and carbon dioxide emissions: Evidence from U.S. and China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 230-236.
    24. Marschinski, Robert & Lecocq, Franck, 2006. "Do intensity targets control uncertainty better than quotas ? Conditions, calibrations, and caveats," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4033, The World Bank.

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    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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