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National Economic Policy Simulations with Global Interdependencies: A Sensitivity Analysis for Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Bernd Meyer
  • Christian Lutz
  • Peter Schnur
  • Gerd Zika

Abstract

Policy simulations for national economies with econometric models, in general, are done using a standalone national model with exogenous export values and import prices. In a globalised world, such an exercise is critical, since the policy in question may change the export prices and the import volumes of the particular country and induce via international trade a change of the economic activities of the global economy and a feedback to the export values and import prices of the particular country. This paper presents a sensitivity analysis for Germany comparing the impacts of a shock on investment in a standalone simulation using the multisector model INFORGE with the results, which occur, if the same model is linked to the global multicountry/multisector model GINFORS endogenising Germany-super-`s export values and import prices. The results are striking: the effect on real GDP is 50% higher in the global simulation than in the standalone case. Because of the specialisation in trade the differences on the sector level are even stronger.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernd Meyer & Christian Lutz & Peter Schnur & Gerd Zika, 2007. "National Economic Policy Simulations with Global Interdependencies: A Sensitivity Analysis for Germany," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 37-55.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:ecsysr:v:19:y:2007:i:1:p:37-55
    DOI: 10.1080/09535310601164765
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2005. "Basar-Ökonomie Deutschland - Exportweltmeister oder Schusslicht?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 58(06), pages 03-42, March.
    2. Lutz, Christian & Meyer, Bernd & Nathani, Carsten & Schleich, Joachim, 2005. "Endogenous technological change and emissions: the case of the German steel industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1143-1154, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lutz, Christian & Meyer, Bernd, 2009. "Economic impacts of higher oil and gas prices: The role of international trade for Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 882-887, November.
    2. Gerd Ahlert, 2006. "Volkswirtschaftliche Wirkungen des Sportstättenbaus," GWS Discussion Paper Series 06-2, GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research.
    3. Britta Stoever, 2011. "The implications of demographic change for the regional retail trade relevant purchasing power in North Rhine-Westphalia," EcoMod2011 2839, EcoMod.
    4. Andrea Stocker & Anett Großmann & Friedrich Hinterberger & Marc Wolter, 2014. "A low growth path in Austria: potential causes, consequences and policy options," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 445-465, August.
    5. Paul Welfens & Christian Lutz, 2012. "Green ICT dynamics: key issues and findings for Germany," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 24(2), pages 155-163, June.
    6. repec:spr:jlabrs:v:50:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s12651-017-0220-x is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Thomas Drosdowski & Marc Ingo Wolter, 2008. "Sozioökonomische Modellierung: Integration der Sozioökonomischen Gesamtrechnung (SGR) des Statistischen Bundesamtes in DEMOS II," GWS Discussion Paper Series 08-8, GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research.
    8. Lehr, Ulrike & Lutz, Christian & Edler, Dietmar, 2012. "Green jobs? Economic impacts of renewable energy in Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 358-364.
    9. repec:iab:iabjlr:v:2017:i:1:p:67-90 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Christian Lutz, 2010. "How to increase global resource productivity? Findings from modelling in the petrE project," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 343-356, August.
    11. Feil, Michael & Klinger, Sabine & Zika, Gerd, 2006. "Sozialabgaben und Beschäftigung : Simulationen mit drei makroökonomischen Modellen," IAB Discussion Paper 200622, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    12. Miguel LEON-LEDESMA & Peter MCADAM & Alpo WILLMAN, "undated". "In Dubio, pro CES: technical progress specification and the elasticity of substitution," EcoMod2010 259600104, EcoMod.
    13. Mark Meyer & Martin Distelkamp & Gerd Ahlert & Prof. Dr. Bernd Meyer, 2013. "Macroeconomic Modelling of the Global Economy-Energy-Environment Nexus - An Overview of Recent Advancements of the Dynamic Simulation Model GINFORS," GWS Discussion Paper Series 13-5, GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research.
    14. Britta Stöver, 2012. "Reallocation of Purchasing Power due to Demographic Change - The Case of North Rhine-Westphalia," GWS Discussion Paper Series 12-1, GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research.
    15. Hohendanner, Christian, 2007. "Verdrängen Ein-Euro-Jobs sozialversicherungspflichtige Beschäftigung in den Betrieben?," IAB Discussion Paper 200708, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    16. Kruppe, Thomas, 2006. "Die Förderung beruflicher Weiterbildung : eine mikroökonometrische Evaluation der Ergänzung durch das ESF-BA-Programm," IAB Discussion Paper 200621, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    17. repec:taf:ecsysr:v:28:y:2016:i:4:p:497-517 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Lehr, Ulrike & Nitsch, Joachim & Kratzat, Marlene & Lutz, Christian & Edler, Dietmar, 2008. "Renewable energy and employment in Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 108-117, January.
    19. Buscher, Herbert S. & Dettmann, Eva & Sunder, Marco & Trocka, Dirk, 2009. "Will There Be a Shortage of Skilled Labor? An East German Perspective to 2015," IWH Discussion Papers 13/2009, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    20. Stocker, Andrea & Großmann, Anett & Madlener, Reinhard & Wolter, Marc Ingo, 2011. "Sustainable energy development in Austria until 2020: Insights from applying the integrated model "e3.at"," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 6082-6099, October.
    21. Philip Ulrich & Ulrike Lehr, 2016. "Economic effects of E-mobility scenarios in the context of intermediate interrelations and consumption," EcoMod2016 9219, EcoMod.
    22. Eckey, Hans-Friedrich & Schwengler, Barbara & Türck, Matthias, 2007. "Vergleich von deutschen Arbeitsmarktregionen," IAB Discussion Paper 200703, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    23. Blien, Uwe & Kirchhof, Kai & Ludewig, Oliver, 2006. "Agglomeration effects on labour demand," IAB Discussion Paper 200628, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    24. Lutz, Christian & Meyer, Bernd, 2009. "Environmental and economic effects of post-Kyoto carbon regimes: Results of simulations with the global model GINFORS," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1758-1766, May.
    25. Amend, Elke & Herbst, Patrick, 2008. "Labor market pooling and human capital investment decisions," IAB Discussion Paper 200804, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Policy simulation; econometric models; global modelling;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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