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Die Modelle ASTRA und PANTA RHEI zur Abschätzung gesamtwirtschaftlicher Wirkungen umweltpolitischer Instrumente - ein Vergleich

Author

Listed:
  • Dr. Ulrike Lehr

    (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research)

  • Anke Mönnig

    (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research)

  • Dr. Marc Ingo Wolter

    (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research)

  • Dr. Christian Lutz

    (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research)

  • Dr. Wolfgang Schade

    (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research)

  • Dr. Michael Krail

    (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research)

Abstract

Zur Abschätzung der ökonomischen Wirkungen umweltpolitischer Instrumente werden oft komplexe gesamtwirtschaftliche Modelle eingesetzt, um die vielfältigen Anpassungsreaktionen der Volkswirtschaft auf Preisänderungen, Investitionsimpulse, geänderte Exporttätigkeiten und andere ökonomische Stellgrößen in ihrer Gesamtheit abzubilden. Der erstmalige direkte Vergleich der zur Abschätzung energiepolitischer Fragestellungen eingesetzten Modelle ASTRA (FhG-ISI) und PANTA RHEI (GWS) trägt dazu bei, die Kommunikation der jeweiligen Ergebnisse zu vereinfachen. Die Modelle werden anhand verschiedener Kriterien (Datenstand, Modellansatz, Modellphilosophie) zunächst gegenübergestellt. In einem nächsten Vergleichsschritt werden die quantitativen Ergebnisse verschiedener bereits durchgeführter Modellierungsarbeiten für Deutschland und die EU verglichen und schließlich parallele Simulationen unter gleichen Vorgaben gerechnet. Der Modellvergleich zwischen PANTA RHEI und ASTRA zeigt, dass beide Modelle zuverlässige und auf nationaler, sowie europäischer Ebene bereits vielfach angewandte Werkzeuge zur Abschätzung der ökonomischen Wirkungen umweltpolitischer Maßnahmen sind. PANTA RHEI bildet dabei den Energieverbrauch des Wohnungssektors sowie der Industrie und die erneuerbaren Energien detaillierter ab, ASTRA den des Verkehrssektors.

Suggested Citation

  • Dr. Ulrike Lehr & Anke Mönnig & Dr. Marc Ingo Wolter & Dr. Christian Lutz & Dr. Wolfgang Schade & Dr. Michael Krail, 2011. "Die Modelle ASTRA und PANTA RHEI zur Abschätzung gesamtwirtschaftlicher Wirkungen umweltpolitischer Instrumente - ein Vergleich," GWS Discussion Paper Series 11-4, GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:gws:dpaper:11-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lehr, Ulrike & Nitsch, Joachim & Kratzat, Marlene & Lutz, Christian & Edler, Dietmar, 2008. "Renewable energy and employment in Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 108-117, January.
    2. Stefan Bach, 1997. "Steuerreform in Deutschland," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 66(3/4), pages 291-316.
    3. Dr. Christian Lutz & Prof. Dr. Bernd Meyer, 2007. "Gesamtwirtschaftliche Effekte niedrigerer Strompreise in Deutschland," GWS Discussion Paper Series 07-1, GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research.
    4. Dr. Ulrike Lehr & Dr. Christian Lutz & Kirsten Wiebe, 2011. "Medium Term Economic Effects of Peak Oil Today," GWS Discussion Paper Series 11-3, GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research.
    5. Lutz, Christian & Meyer, Bernd & Nathani, Carsten & Schleich, Joachim, 2005. "Endogenous technological change and emissions: the case of the German steel industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1143-1154, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dr. Markus Flaute & Anett Großmann & Dr. Christian Lutz & Anne Nieters, 2015. "Erweiterung des umweltökonomischen Modells PANTA RHEI um Prosumer-Haushaltstypen," GWS Discussion Paper Series 15-14, GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research.
    2. Sievers, Luisa & Breitschopf, Barbara & Pfaff, Matthias & Schaffer, Axel, 2019. "Macroeconomic impact of the German energy transition and its distribution by sectors and regions," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 191-204.
    3. Markus Flaute & Anett Gro mann & Christian Lutz & Anne Nieters, 2017. "Macroeconomic Effects of Prosumer Households in Germany," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 146-155.
    4. Michaela Fursch & Dietmar Lindenberger & Raimund Malischek & Stephan Nagl & Timo Panke & Johannes Truby, 2012. "German Nuclear Policy Reconsidered: Implications for the Electricity Market," Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    5. Mönnig, Anke & Schneemann, Christian & Weber, Enzo & Zika, Gerd & Helmrich, Robert, 2018. "Elektromobilität 2035 : Effekte auf Wirtschaft und Erwerbstätigkeit durch die Elektrifizierung des Antriebsstrangs von Personenkraftwagen," IAB-Forschungsbericht 201808, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Modellvergleich; Abschätzung umweltpolitischer Instrumente; Simulationsrechnung;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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