IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eut/journl/v21y2017i3p469.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An Estimation of The Impact of Economic Sanctions and Oil Price Shocks on Iran-Russian Trade: Evidence from a Gravity- VEC Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Allah Morad Seif

    () (Department of Economics, Imam Hussein Comprehensive University, Tehran, Iran.)

  • Hossein Panahi

    () (Department of Economics, Tabriz University, Tabriz, Iran.)

  • Davoud Hamidi Razi

    () (Department of Economics, Tabriz University, Tabriz, Iran.)

Abstract

This article is an empirical attempt to explore the relationship between sanctions (financial and non-financial), oil price shocks and Iran-Russian bilateral trade flows over the period 1991–2014. In contrast to earlier studies in which a gravity model has been estimated through a panel data approach, in this paper the authors apply a gravity model for only two countries and do the estimations using the vector error correction approach. The overall estimation results indicate that financial sanctions, non-financial sanctions and oil price shocks negatively impact the Iran-Russian trade. Furthermore, financial sanctions had the greatest negative impact on Iran-Russian trade rather than non-financial sanctions and sharp oil price shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Allah Morad Seif & Hossein Panahi & Davoud Hamidi Razi, 2017. "An Estimation of The Impact of Economic Sanctions and Oil Price Shocks on Iran-Russian Trade: Evidence from a Gravity- VEC Approach," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 21(3), pages 469-497, Summer.
  • Handle: RePEc:eut:journl:v:21:y:2017:i:3:p:469
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: ftp://80.66.179.253/eut/journl/20173-2.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tian, Huifang & Whalley, John, 2010. "Trade sanctions, financial transfers and BRIC participation in global climate change negotiations," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 47-63, January.
    2. Charles H. Anderton & John R. Carter, 2001. "The Impact of War on Trade: An Interrupted Times-Series Study," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 38(4), pages 445-457, July.
    3. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Gröschl, Jasmin, 2013. "Natural disasters and the effect of trade on income: A new panel IV approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 18-30.
    4. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2015. "The nexus between oil price and Russia's real exchange rate: Better paths via unconditional vs conditional analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 54-66.
    5. Novy, Dennis, 2013. "International trade without CES: Estimating translog gravity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 271-282.
    6. Lutz, Christian & Meyer, Bernd, 2009. "Economic impacts of higher oil and gas prices: The role of international trade for Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 882-887, November.
    7. Santos-Paulino, Amelia U., 2002. "The Effects of Trade Liberalization on Imports in Selected Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 959-974, June.
    8. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    9. Beine, Michel & Bos, Charles S. & Coulombe, Serge, 2012. "Does the Canadian economy suffer from Dutch disease?," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 468-492.
    10. Goh, Soo Khoon & Wong, Koi Nyen & Tham, Siew Yean, 2013. "Trade linkages of inward and outward FDI: Evidence from Malaysia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 224-230.
    11. Lam, San Ling, 1990. "Economic sanctions and the success of foreign policy goals : A critical evaluation," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 239-248, September.
    12. Faria, João Ricardo & Mollick, André Varella & Albuquerque, Pedro H. & León-Ledesma, Miguel A., 2009. "The effect of oil price on China's exports," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 793-805, December.
    13. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza & Raeisian Parvari, Mozhgan, 2014. "Iranian-Oil-Free Zone and international oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 364-372.
    14. Laurent Denant-Boemont & David Masclet & Charles Noussair, 2007. "Punishment, counterpunishment and sanction enforcement in a social dilemma experiment," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 33(1), pages 145-167, October.
    15. Ülengin, Füsun & Çekyay, Bora & Toktaş Palut, Peral & Ülengin, Burç & Kabak, Özgür & Özaydın, Özay & Önsel Ekici, Şule, 2015. "Effects of quotas on Turkish foreign trade: A gravity model," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 1-7.
    16. Manzoor, Davood & Haqiqi, Iman & Aghababaei, Mohammad, 2012. "Modeling Dutch Disease in the Economy of Iran: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach," MPRA Paper 95821, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Fang, Chung-Rou & You, Shih-Yi, 2014. "The impact of oil price shocks on the large emerging countries' stock prices: Evidence from China, India and Russia," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 330-338.
    18. repec:eut:journl:v:20:y:2016:i:2:p:203 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Rautava, Jouko, 2004. "The role of oil prices and the real exchange rate in Russia's economy--a cointegration approach," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 315-327, June.
    20. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1989. "The Generalized Gravity Equation, Monopolistic Competition, and the Factor-Proportions Theory in International Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 143-153, February.
    21. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2015. "OPEC and non-OPEC oil production and the global economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 364-378.
    22. Dick, Hermann & Gupta, Sanjeev & Vincent, David & Voigt, Herbert, 1984. "The effect of oil price increases on four oil-poor developing countries : A comparative analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 59-70, January.
    23. Korhonen, Iikka & Ledyaeva, Svetlana, 2010. "Trade linkages and macroeconomic effects of the price of oil," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 848-856, July.
    24. Fardmanesh, Mohsen, 1991. "Dutch disease economics and oil syndrome: An empirical study," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 711-717, June.
    25. Amir Reza Soori & Ahmad Tashkini, 2012. "Gravity Model: An Application to Trade between Iran and Regional Blocs," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 17(1), pages 1-12, winter.
    26. Anne-Célia Disdier & Keith Head, 2008. "The Puzzling Persistence of the Distance Effect on Bilateral Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(1), pages 37-48, February.
    27. Tian, Huifang & Whalley, John, 2010. "Trade sanctions, financial transfers and BRIC participation in global climate change negotiations," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 47-63, January.
    28. repec:eee:rujoec:v:1:y:2015:i:3:p:257-272 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Malikov, Emir, 2016. "Dynamic responses to oil price shocks: Conditional vs unconditional (a)symmetry," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 31-35.
    30. George Furstenberg, 1991. "Scoring the success of sanctions," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 305-313, October.
    31. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Gröschl, Jasmin, 2013. "Natural disasters and the effect of trade on income: A new panel IV approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 18-30.
    32. A. Porojan, 2001. "Trade Flows and Spatial Effects: The Gravity Model Revisited," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 265-280, July.
    33. Narayan, Seema & Nguyen, Tri Tung, 2016. "Does the trade gravity model depend on trading partners? Some evidence from Vietnam and her 54 trading partners," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 220-237.
    34. Okubo, Toshihiro, 2007. "Trade bloc formation in inter-war Japan.: A gravity model analysis," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 214-236, June.
    35. Darren Byers & Talan Işcan & Barry Lesser, 2000. "New Borders and Trade Flows: A Gravity Model Analysis of the Baltic States," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 73-91, January.
    36. Liudmila Popova & Ehsan Rasoulinezhad, 2016. "Have Sanctions Modified Iran’s Trade Policy? An Evidence of Asianization and De-Europeanization through the Gravity Model," Economies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 4(4), pages 1-15, October.
    37. repec:eee:rujoec:v:1:y:2015:i:2:p:130-153 is not listed on IDEAS
    38. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza & Markwardt, Gunther, 2009. "The effects of oil price shocks on the Iranian economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 134-151, January.
    39. Krugman, Paul, 1987. "The narrow moving band, the Dutch disease, and the competitive consequences of Mrs. Thatcher : Notes on trade in the presence of dynamic scale economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 41-55, October.
    40. Farhad Taghizadeh Hesary & Naoyuki Yoshino & Ghahraman Abdoli & Asadollah Farzinvash, 2013. "An Estimation of the Impact of Oil Shocks on Crude Oil Exporting Economies and Their Trade Partners," Frontiers of Economics in China, Higher Education Press, vol. 8(4), pages 571-591, December.
    41. Takatsuka, Hajime & Zeng, Dao-Zhi & Zhao, Laixun, 2015. "Resource-based cities and the Dutch disease," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 57-84.
    42. Tohid Atashbar, 2013. "Iranian Disease: Why a Developing Country's Government Did Not Listen to Economists' Advices," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(3), pages 732-760, July.
    43. Kaplow, Louis, 1990. "A note on the optimal use of nonmonetary sanctions," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 245-247, July.
    44. Elisabeth Beckmann & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2012. "Oil Price Shock and Structural Changes in CMEA Trade: Pouring Oil on Troubled Waters?," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 9(1), pages 31-49, April.
    45. Chen, Natalie & Novy, Dennis, 2011. "Gravity, trade integration, and heterogeneity across industries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 206-221.
    46. Dickie, Paul, 1992. "The Gulf crisis one year on : Problems for international traders," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 107-110, March.
    47. Ekanayake, E. M. & Mukherjee, Amit, 2010. "Trade Blocks and the Gravity Model: A Study of Economic Integration among Asian Developing Countries," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 25, pages 627-643.
    48. Mohammad Nasre Esfahani & Ehsan Rasoulinezhad, 2016. "Will be there New CO2 Emitters in the Future? Evidence of Longrun Panel Co-integration for N-11 Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(3), pages 463-470.
    49. Katsuya Ito, 2009. "The Russian Economy and the Oil Price: A Co-integrated VAR Approach," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 16(1), pages 220-227, May.
    50. Somayeh Mardaneh, 2012. "Inflation Dynamics in a Dutch Disease Economy," Discussion Papers in Economics 12/25, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    51. Evenett, Simon J, 2002. "The Impact of Economic Sanctions on South African Exports," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 49(5), pages 557-573, December.
    52. Sachs, Jeffrey D. & Warner, Andrew M., 2001. "The curse of natural resources," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 827-838, May.
    53. repec:eme:ceftpp:jcefts-09-2016-0027 is not listed on IDEAS
    54. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-116, March.
    55. repec:eee:rujoec:v:1:y:2015:i:1:p:30-54 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eut:journl:v:21:y:2017:i:3:p:469. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ([z.rahimalipour]). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/fecutir.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.