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Natural Disasters and the Effect of Trade on Income: A New Panel IV Approach

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  • Gabriel Felbermayr

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  • Jasmin Katrin Gröschl

Abstract

Does trade openness cause higher GDP per capita? Since the seminal instrumental variables (IV) estimates of Frankel and Romer [F&R](1999) important doubts have surfaced. Is the correlation spurious and driven by omitted geographical and institutional variables? In this paper, we generalize F&R’s geography-based empirical strategy to a panel setting. We observe that natural disasters affect bilateral trade, and that this effect is conditioned by geographical variables such as distance to financial centers or area. This allows us to use interactions between geography and the incidence of disasters at the bilateral level to construct an instrument for multilateral openness that varies across countries and time. The instrument can be used in panel setups where it is possible to fully control for geographical and historical determinants of countries’ performances as well as for the direct effect of disasters. We find that the elasticity of income with respect to openness is about 0.69, but that substantial heterogeneity exists across country samples.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel Felbermayr & Jasmin Katrin Gröschl, 2011. "Natural Disasters and the Effect of Trade on Income: A New Panel IV Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 3541, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3541
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    Cited by:

    1. Matthew Ranson & Lisa Tarquinio & Audrey Lew, 2016. "Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Weather Losses," NCEE Working Paper Series 201602, National Center for Environmental Economics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, revised May 2016.
    2. Florian Dorn & Clemens Fuest & Niklas Potrafke, 2017. "Globalisation and Income Inequality Revisited," European Economy - Discussion Papers 2015 - 056, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    3. Lazzaroni, Sara & van Bergeijk, Peter A.G., 2014. "Natural disasters' impact, factors of resilience and development: A meta-analysis of the macroeconomic literature," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 333-346.
    4. repec:spr:envpol:v:20:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10018-016-0180-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Potrafke, Niklas, 2013. "Globalization and labor market institutions: International empirical evidence," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 829-842.
    6. Gabriel Felbermayr, 2016. "Economic Analysis of TTIP," ifo Working Paper Series 215, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    7. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Gröschl, Jasmin, 2014. "Naturally negative: The growth effects of natural disasters," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 92-106.
    8. Gabriel Felbermayr & Jasmin Katrin Gröschl, 2013. "Natürlich negativ: Der Wachstumseffekt von Naturkatastrophen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(19), pages 16-22, October.
    9. Gabriel Felbermayr & Mario Larch, 2014. "Transatlantic Free Trade: Questions and Answers from the Vantage Point of Trade Theory," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 14(4), pages 03-17, January.
    10. Niklas Potrafke, 2015. "The Evidence on Globalisation," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(3), pages 509-552, March.
    11. Peter Eppinger & Niklas Potrafke, 2016. "Did Globalisation Influence Credit Market Deregulation?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(3), pages 426-443, March.
    12. Mitrut, Andreea & Wolff, François-Charles, 2014. "Remittances after natural disasters: Evidence from the 2004 Indian tsunami," Working Papers in Economics 604, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    13. Chowdhury, Mohammad Tarequl Hasan & Bhattacharya, Prasad Sankar & Mallick, Debdulal & Ulubaşoğlu, Mehmet Ali, 2016. "Exchange rate regimes and fiscal discipline: The role of trade openness," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 106-128.
    14. Brambilla, Irene & Porto, Guido G., 2016. "High-income export destinations, quality and wages," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 21-35.
    15. Lixin Tang, 2014. "Top Income Inequality, Aggregate Saving and the Gains from Trade," 2014 Papers pta581, Job Market Papers.
    16. Lu, Lina, 2017. "Simultaneous Spatial Panel Data Models with Common Shocks," Risk and Policy Analysis Unit Working Paper RPA 17-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    per capita income; openness; natural disasters; instrumental variable estimation; panel econometrics;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C26 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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