IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Iranian-Oil-Free Zone and International Oil Prices

  • Mohammad Reza Farzanegan

    (University of Marburg)

  • Mozhgan Raeisian Parvari

    (University of Vienna)

One of the main elements of economic sanctions against Iran due to its nuclear and military programs is crude oil exportation restrictions in addition to investment in Iranian energy related projects. Senders of such sanction are interested in understanding the impacts of such embargos on international oil prices. We apply unrestricted Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, using impulse response (IRF) and variance decomposition (VDA) tools with annual data from 1965 to 2012 to analyze the dynamic response of international oil prices to Iranian oil export sanction. Controlling for the supply of non-Iranian oil and the world GDP per capita, we show that international oil prices respond positively to negative changes of the Iranian oil expor, our proxy of Iran oil sanctions. However, the increasing response of oil prices to the Iranian oil sanction is only significant in the first year after negative shock in Iran oil exports. Beyond the first year following shock, we do not observe a statistically significant response of oil prices.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.uni-marburg.de/fb02/makro/forschung/magkspapers/27-2014_farzanegan.pdf
File Function: First 201427
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung) in its series MAGKS Papers on Economics with number 201427.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2014
Date of revision:
Publication status: Forthcoming in
Handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:201427
Contact details of provider: Postal: Universitätsstraße 25, 35037 Marburg
Phone: 06421/28-1722
Fax: 06421/28-4858
Web page: http://www.uni-marburg.de/fb02/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Sajjad Faraji Dizaji & Peter A G van Bergeijk, 2013. "Potential early phase success and ultimate failure of economic sanctions," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 50(6), pages 721-736, November.
  2. Alhajji, A. F. & Huettner, David, 2000. "OPEC and other commodity cartels: a comparison," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(15), pages 1151-1164, December.
  3. A.F Alhajji & David Huettner, 2000. "OPEC and World Crude Oil Markets from 1973 to 1994: Cartel, Oligopoly, or Competitive?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 31-60.
  4. Lutz Kilian, 2014. "Oil Price Shocks: Causes and Consequences," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 133-154, October.
  5. Alquist, Ron & Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2011. "Forecasting the Price of Oil," CEPR Discussion Papers 8388, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Antonio Spilimbergo, 1995. "Testing the Hypothesis of Collusive Behavior Among OPEC Members," Research Department Publications 4016, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  7. Kjetil Bjorvatn & Mohammad Reza Farzanegan, 2014. "Resource rents, power, and political stability," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201419, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  8. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan, 2008. "Illegal Trade in the Iranian Economy: Evidence from a Structural Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 2397, CESifo Group Munich.
  9. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan, 2014. "Military Spending and Economic Growth: The Case of Iran," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(3), pages 247-269, June.
  10. Bjorvatn Kjetil & Farzanegan Mohammad Reza & Schneider Friedrich, 2013. "Resource Curse and Power Balance: Evidence from Iran," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 133-158, August.
  11. Petter Vegard Hansen & Lars Lindholt, 2004. "The market power of OPEC 1973-2001," Discussion Papers 385, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
  12. Naghavi, Alireza & Pignataro, Giuseppe, 2015. "Theocracy and resilience against economic sanctions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 1-12.
  13. Robert Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2004. "Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s," NBER Working Papers 10855, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1995. "Error bands for impulse responses," Working Paper 95-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  15. Mork, Knut Anton, 1989. "Oil and Macroeconomy When Prices Go Up and Down: An Extension of Hamilton's Results," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 740-44, June.
  16. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Sajjad Faraji Dizaji, 2014. "Political Institutions and Government Spending Behavior in Iran," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201403, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  17. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza & Markwardt, Gunther, 2009. "The effects of oil price shocks on the Iranian economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 134-151, January.
  18. Roberto A. De Santis, 2000. "Crude Oil Price Fluctuations and Saudi Arabian Behaviour," Kiel Working Papers 1014, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  19. Pedro A. Almoguera & Christopher C. Douglas & Ana María Herrera, 2011. "Testing for the cartel in OPEC: non-cooperative collusion or just non-cooperative?," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(1), pages 144-168, Spring.
  20. Carol Dahl & Mine Yücel, 1989. "Dynamic modeling and testing of OPEC behavior," Research Paper 8917, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  21. Baumeister, Christiane & Kilian, Lutz, 2011. "Real-Time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil," CEPR Discussion Papers 8414, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  22. Bjorvatn, Kjetil & Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza & Schneider, Friedrich, 2012. "Resource Curse and Power Balance: Evidence from Oil-Rich Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(7), pages 1308-1316.
  23. Bjorvatn, Kjetil & Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza, 2013. "Demographic Transition in Resource Rich Countries: A Blessing or a Curse?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 337-351.
  24. Sabine Bockem, 2004. "Cartel formation and oligopoly structure: a new assessment of the crude oil market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(12), pages 1355-1369.
  25. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
  26. Griffin, James M, 1985. "OPEC Behavior: A Test of Alternative Hypotheses," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(5), pages 954-63, December.
  27. Clifton T. Jones, 1990. "OPEC Behaviour Under Falling Prices: Implications For Cartel Stability," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 117-130.
  28. Abhay Abhyankar, Bing Xu, and Jiayue Wang, 2013. "Oil Price Shocks and the Stock Market: Evidence from Japan," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
  29. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Hassan Gholipour Fereidouni, 2014. "Marriage Crisis and Housing Costs: Empirical Evidence from Provinces of Iran," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201401, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  30. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  31. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza, 2011. "Oil revenue shocks and government spending behavior in Iran," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1055-1069.
  32. Kaufmann, Robert K. & Bradford, Andrew & Belanger, Laura H. & Mclaughlin, John P. & Miki, Yosuke, 2008. "Determinants of OPEC production: Implications for OPEC behavior," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 333-351, March.
  33. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, March.
  34. Loderer, Claudio, 1985. " A Test of the OPEC Cartel Hypothesis: 1974-1983," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 991-1006, July.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:201427. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bernd Hayo)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.