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Crude oil price fluctuations and Saudi Arabia's behaviour

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  • De Santis, Roberto A.

Abstract

This study seeks to explain why crude oil prices fluctuate, the main cause being the quota regime, which characterises the OPEC agreements. Given that the Saudi oil supply is inelastic in the short term, a shock in the oil market is accommodated by an immediate price change. In contrast, a dominant firm behaviour in the long term causes an output change, which is accompanied by a smaller price change. This explains why oil prices overshoot. The results of a general equilibrium model applied to Saudi Arabia support this analysis. They also indicate that Saudi Arabia does not have any incentive in altering the crude oil market equilibrium with either positive or negative supply shocks; and that its behaviour is asymmetric in the presence of world demand shocks, having an incentive (disincentive) in intervening if a negative (positive) demand shock hits the crude oil market. A second set of simulations is designed to understand what might be a correct OECD policy to lower prices. A tax cut would worsen the situation, whereas policies which can increase the price elasticity of demand seem to be very effective.
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  • De Santis, Roberto A., 2003. "Crude oil price fluctuations and Saudi Arabia's behaviour," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 155-173, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:25:y:2003:i:2:p:155-173
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    14. Ramón E. Key-Hernández & Claudina Villarroel, 2014. "Domestic impact of production cuts in OPEC countries: The cases of Nigeria and Venezuela," EcoMod2014 7007, EcoMod.
    15. Genc, Talat S., 2017. "OPEC and demand response to crude oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 238-246.
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    17. Güntner, Jochen H.F., 2014. "How do oil producers respond to oil demand shocks?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-13.
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    19. Dagoumas, Athanasios & Perifanis, Theodosios & Polemis, Michael, 2018. "An econometric analysis of the Saudi Arabia's crude oil strategy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 265-273.
    20. Zhang, Hai-Ying & Ji, Qiang & Fan, Ying, 2015. "What drives the formation of global oil trade patterns?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 639-648.
    21. Jawadi, Fredj & Ftiti, Zied, 2019. "Oil price collapse and challenges to economic transformation of Saudi Arabia: A time-series analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 12-19.
    22. Hassan Ghassan & Prashanta Banerjee, 2015. "A threshold cointegration analysis of asymmetric adjustment of OPEC and non-OPEC monthly crude oil prices," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 305-323, August.
    23. Dewhurst John & Kerwat Jamal & Molana Hassan, 2010. "Viability of Keeping a Fixed Exchange Rate in an Oil Exporting Country: Some Results for Libya from a Computable General Equilibrium Model," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 5(3), pages 24-45, February.
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    JEL classification:

    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations

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