IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/ifwkwp/1014.html

Crude Oil Price Fluctuations and Saudi Arabian Behaviour

Author

Listed:
  • De Santis, Roberto A.

Abstract

This study seeks to explain why crude oil prices fluctuate, the main cause being the quota regime, which characterises the OPEC agreements. Given that the Saudi oil supply is inelastic in the short term, a shock in the oil market is accommodated by an immediate price change. In contrast, a dominant firm behaviour in the long term causes an output change, which is accompanied by a smaller price change. This explains why oil prices overshoot. The results of a general equilibrium model applied to Saudi Arabia support this analysis. They also indicate that Saudi Arabia does not have any incentive in altering the crude oil market equilibrium with either positive or negative supply shocks; and that its behaviour is asymmetric in the presence of world demand shocks, having an incentive (disincentive) in intervening if a negative (positive) demand shock hits the crude oil market. A second set of simulations is designed to understand what might be a correct OECD policy to lower prices. A tax cut would worsen the situation, whereas policies which can increase the price elasticity of demand seem to be very effective.

Suggested Citation

  • De Santis, Roberto A., 2000. "Crude Oil Price Fluctuations and Saudi Arabian Behaviour," Kiel Working Papers 1014, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:1014
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/17713/1/kap1014.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Patricia Renou-Maissant, 1999. "Interfuel Competition in the Industrial Sector of Seven OECD Countries," Post-Print hal-02562575, HAL.
    2. Eric Neumayer, 2000. "Scarce or Abundant? The Economics of Natural Resource Availability," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 307-335, July.
    3. Adelman, M. A., 1978. "Constraints on the world oil monopoly price," Resources and Energy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-19, September.
    4. Ramcharran, Harri, 2002. "Oil production responses to price changes: an empirical application of the competitive model to OPEC and non-OPEC countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 97-106, March.
    5. repec:aen:journl:2000v21-03-a02 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Renou-Maissant, Patricia, 1999. "Interfuel competition in the industrial sector of seven OECD countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 99-110, February.
    7. Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1976. "Monopoly and the Rate of Extraction of Exhaustible Resources," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(4), pages 655-661, September.
    8. Griffin, James M, 1985. "OPEC Behavior: A Test of Alternative Hypotheses," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(5), pages 954-963, December.
    9. Nourah A. Al-Yousef, 1998. "Economic Models of OPEC Behaviour and the Role of Saudi Arabia," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 94, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    10. repec:bla:jecsur:v:14:y:2000:i:3:p:307-35 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:adr:anecst:y:1989:i:15-16:p:19 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Jacques Cremer & Djavad Salehi-Isfahani, 1989. "The Rise and Fall of Oil Prices: a Competitive View," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 15-16, pages 427-454.
    13. repec:aen:journl:1993v14-04-a11 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. repec:aen:journl:1990v11-03-a06 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. repec:aen:journl:1992v13-04-a10 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. repec:aen:journl:1993v14-01-a01 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Soren T. Anderson & Ryan Kellogg & Stephen W. Salant, 2018. "Hotelling under Pressure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(3), pages 984-1026.
    2. Hossein Mirshojaeian Hosseini & Shinji Kaneko, 2013. "Fuel Conservation Effect of Energy Subsidy Reform in Iran," Working Papers 3-1, Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran.
    3. Andrade de Sá, Saraly & Daubanes, Julien, 2016. "Limit pricing and the (in)effectiveness of the carbon tax," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 28-39.
    4. Mirshojaeian Hosseini, Hossein & Majed, Vahid & Kaneko, Shinji, 2015. "The Effects of Energy Subsidy Reform on Fuel Demand in Iran," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 10(2), pages 23-47, January.
    5. Ringlund, Guro Bornes & Rosendahl, Knut Einar & Skjerpen, Terje, 2008. "Does oilrig activity react to oil price changes An empirical investigation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 371-396, March.
    6. Peñasco, Cristina & del Río, Pablo & Romero-Jordán, Desiderio, 2017. "Gas and electricity demand in Spanish manufacturing industries: An analysis using homogeneous and heterogeneous estimators," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 45-60.
    7. Bharati, Rakesh & Crain, Susan J. & Kaminski, Vincent, 2012. "Clustering in crude oil prices and the target pricing zone hypothesis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1115-1123.
    8. Chen, Fan & Linn, Scott C., 2017. "Investment and operating choice: Oil and natural gas futures prices and drilling activity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 54-68.
    9. Alam, Qaiser & Alam, Shabbir & Jamil, Syed Ahsan, 2016. "Oil demand and price elasticity of energy consumption in the GCC countries: A panel cointegration analysis," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center (PRADEC), vol. 12(2).
    10. Chevillon, Guillaume & Rifflart, Christine, 2009. "Physical market determinants of the price of crude oil and the market premium," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 537-549, July.
    11. Güntner, Jochen H.F., 2014. "How do oil producers respond to oil demand shocks?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-13.
    12. Hang, Leiming & Tu, Meizeng, 2007. "The impacts of energy prices on energy intensity: Evidence from China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 2978-2988, May.
    13. Steinbuks, Jevgenijs & Narayanan, Badri G., 2015. "Fossil fuel producing economies have greater potential for industrial interfuel substitution," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 168-177.
    14. Lin, Boqiang & Omoju, Oluwasola E. & Okonkwo, Jennifer U., 2015. "Will disruptions in OPEC oil supply have permanent impact on the global oil market?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1312-1321.
    15. Kheiravar, Khaled H, 2019. "Economic and Econometric Analyses of the World Petroleum Industry, Energy Subsidies, and Air Pollution," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt3gj151w9, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    16. Zou, Gao Lu, 2012. "The long-term relationships among China's energy consumption sources and adjustments to its renewable energy policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 456-467.
    17. Weiyu Gao & Peter Hartley & Robin Sickles, 2009. "Optimal dynamic production from a large oil field in Saudi Arabia," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 153-184, September.
    18. Abada, Ibrahim & Briat, Vincent & Massol, Olivier, 2013. "Construction of a fuel demand function portraying interfuel substitution, a system dynamics approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 240-251.
    19. Deb, Rahul & Fenske, James, 2009. "A Nonparametric Test of Strategic Behavior in the Cournot Model," MPRA Paper 16560, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Beckman, Jayson & Hertel, Thomas & Tyner, Wallace, 2011. "Validating energy-oriented CGE models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 799-806, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:1014. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwkiede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.