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The impact of declining oil rents on tax revenues: Does the shadow economy matter?

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  • Ishak, Phoebe W.
  • Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza

Abstract

We study the association between oil rents and tax revenues, highlighting the importance of the shadow economy (SE) as a moderating factor in this relationship. Declining oil rents may not lead to higher tax efforts in a state if the SE is sizable. Using a sample of 124 countries from 1991 to 2015, our panel data regression analysis illustrates the moderating role of the SE in the final effect of negative oil rent shocks on tax revenues. A decline in oil rents following negative oil price shocks ceases to have any significant positive impact on tax revenues in countries with an SE representing more than 35% of gross domestic product. The results are robust after controlling for country- and year-fixed effects, other determinants of tax revenues, and using a dynamic model.

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  • Ishak, Phoebe W. & Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza, 2020. "The impact of declining oil rents on tax revenues: Does the shadow economy matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:92:y:2020:i:c:s0140988320302656
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104925
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    2. Dada, James Temitope & Ajide, Folorunsho Monsur & Arnaut, Marina & Al-Faryan, Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh, 2024. "On the contributing factors to shadow economy in Africa: Do natural resources, ethnicity and religious diversity make any difference?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    3. Phoebe W. Ishak & Mohammad Reza Farzanegan, 2022. "Oil price shocks, protest, and the shadow economy: Is there a mitigation effect?," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(2), pages 298-321, July.
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    5. Alvarado, Rafael & Tillaguango, Brayan & López-Sánchez, Michelle & Ponce, Pablo & Işık, Cem, 2021. "Heterogeneous impact of natural resources on income inequality: The role of the shadow economy and human capital index," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 690-704.
    6. Sena Kimm Gnangnon, 2023. "Effect of the Shadow Economy on Tax Reform in Developing Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-49, March.
    7. Adeniyi, Oluwatosin & Kumeka, Terver Theophilus & Alagbada, Oladimeji, 2022. "Natural Resource Dependence and Tax Effort in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Economic Development, The Economic Research Institute, Chung-Ang University, vol. 47(1), pages 29-64, March.
    8. Asgari, Heshmatolah & Moridian, Ali, 2023. "Investigating the Role of Human Capital and Shadow Economy in the Impact of Natural Resource Rent on Income Inequality with Regime Change (in Persian)," The Journal of Planning and Budgeting (٠صلنامه برنامه ریزی و بودجه), Institute for Management and Planning studies, vol. 28(4), pages 75-110, December.
    9. Ibrahim A. Adekunle & Olukayode E. Maku & Tolulope O. Williams & Judith Gbagidi & Emmanuel O. Ajike, 2023. "Natural Resource Endowments and Growth Dynamics in Africa: Evidence from Panel Cointegrating Regression," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 23/015, African Governance and Development Institute..
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Shadow economy; Tax revenues; Oil rents; Resource curse;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development
    • Q35 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Hydrocarbon Resources
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements

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