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Measuring oil-price shocks using market-based information

  • Tao Wu

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)

  • Michele Cavallo

    (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)

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    We develop two measures of exogenous oil-price shocks for the period 1984 to 2006 based on market commentaries on daily oil-price fluctuations. Our measures are based on exogenous events that trigger substantial fluctuations in spot oil prices and are constructed to be free of endogenous and anticipatory movements. We find that the dynamic responses of output and prices implied by these measures are “well-behaved,” and that the response of output is larger than the one implied by a conventional measure of oil-price shocks proposed in the literature. We then present a dynamic general-equilibrium model and ask whether it can account for the response of key macroeconomic variables to our oil-price shocks.

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    File URL: https://www.economicdynamics.org/meetpapers/2007/paper_953.pdf
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    Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2007 Meeting Papers with number 953.

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    Date of creation: 2007
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    Handle: RePEc:red:sed007:953
    Contact details of provider: Postal: Society for Economic Dynamics Christian Zimmermann Economic Research Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PO Box 442 St. Louis MO 63166-0442 USA
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    1. Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971. "Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-75, November.
    2. James D. Hamilton, 2000. "What is an Oil Shock?," NBER Working Papers 7755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 215-220, October.
    4. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Fisher, Jonas D. M., 2004. "Fiscal shocks and their consequences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 89-117, March.
    5. Tao Wu & Andrew McCallum, 2005. "Do oil futures prices help predict future oil prices?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue dec30.
    6. James D. Hamilton, 1985. "Historical Causes of Postwar Oil Shocks and Recessions," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 97-116.
    7. Hoover, Kevin D. & Perez, Stephen J., 1994. "Post hoc ergo propter once more an evaluation of 'does monetary policy matter?' in the spirit of James Tobin," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 47-74, August.
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