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Oil supply news in a VAR: Information from financial markets

Author

Listed:
  • Alessio Anzuini

    () (Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department)

  • Patrizio Pagano

    () (Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department)

  • Massimiliano Pisani

    () (Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic effects on the U.S. economy of news about oil supply by estimating a VAR. Information contained in daily quotations of oil futures contracts is exploited to estimate the dynamic path of oil prices following a shock. Hence, differently from the VAR literature on oil shocks we do not need to rely on recursive identification. Impulse response functions suggest that oil supply disruptions have stagflationary effects on the U.S. economy. Historical decomposition shows that oil shocks contributed significantly to the US recessions of the last thirty years, but not all exogenous increases in oil prices induced a recession. Finally, the contribution of oil shocks to inflation fluctuations seems to have declined over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessio Anzuini & Patrizio Pagano & Massimiliano Pisani, 2007. "Oil supply news in a VAR: Information from financial markets," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 632, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_632_07
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Marco Lombardi & Chiara Osbat & Bernd Schnatz, 2012. "Global commodity cycles and linkages: a FAVAR approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 651-670, October.
    2. A. Anzuini & M. J. Lombardi & P. Pagano, 2013. "The Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks on Commodity Prices," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(3), pages 125-150, September.
    3. Francesco Lippi & Andrea Nobili, 2012. "Oil And The Macroeconomy: A Quantitative Structural Analysis," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(5), pages 1059-1083, October.
    4. Christiane Baumeister & Gert Peersman, 2013. "Time-Varying Effects of Oil Supply Shocks on the US Economy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 1-28, October.
    5. Marko Melolinna, 2011. "Using Financial Markets Information to Identify Oil Supply Shocks in a Restricted VAR," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 24(1), pages 33-54, Spring.
    6. Al-mulali, Usama & Che Sab, Normee, 2009. "The Impact of Oil Prices on the Real Exchange Rate of the Dirham: a Case Study of the United Arab Emirates," MPRA Paper 23493, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Al-mulali, Usama & Che Sab, Che Normee, 2010. "The Impact of Oil Shocks on Qatar’s GDP," MPRA Paper 27822, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 31 Dec 2010.
    8. Melolinna, Marko, 2008. "Using financial markets information to identify oil supply shocks in a restricted VAR," Research Discussion Papers 9/2008, Bank of Finland.
    9. Robert Anderton & Alessandro Galesi & Marco Lombardi & Filippo di Mauro, 2010. "Key Elements of Global Inflation," RBA Annual Conference Volume,in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.), Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks Reserve Bank of Australia.
    10. Al-mulali, Usama, 2010. "The Impact of Oil Prices on the Exchange Rate and Economic Growth in Norway," MPRA Paper 24447, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    vector autoregression; oil shock; futures; news;

    JEL classification:

    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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