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The labour market in the euro area: and yet, it moves!

Author

Listed:
  • Consolo, Agostino
  • Foroni, Claudia
  • Hjelm, Linnéa

Abstract

Unlike past high-inflation episodes, the euro area labour market remained surprisingly resilient during the inflation surge of the early 2020s. This paper investigates the drivers of this resilience by combining long-span euro area macroeconomic data (1970–2025) with a structural VAR analysis that disentangles the roles of aggregate demand and supply, monetary policy, and factor-substitution shocks. Our findings show that, in contrast to the 1970s and 1980s, the decline in real wages has supported labour demand and, more broadly, the labour market, thereby helping to explain the decoupling between output and employment. We also find that monetary policy shocks have had a stronger impact on output than on employment,further amplifying the pro-cyclicality of labour productivity. JEL Classification: E24, E32, C32

Suggested Citation

  • Consolo, Agostino & Foroni, Claudia & Hjelm, Linnéa, 2026. "The labour market in the euro area: and yet, it moves!," Working Paper Series 3180, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20263180
    Note: 3572376
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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