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What Caused the US Pandemic-Era Inflation?

Author

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  • Ben Bernanke
  • Olivier Blanchard

Abstract

We estimate a simple dynamic model of prices, wages, and short-run and long-run inflation expectations that allows us to analyze and quantify the sources of recent US inflation. We find that, contrary to early concerns that inflation would be spurred by overheated labor markets, most of the inflation surge resulted from shocks to prices given wages. Although tight labor markets have, thus far, not been the primary driver of inflation, we find that they have a relatively more persistent effect on wage growth and inflation. Controlling inflation will, thus, ultimately require achieving a better balance of labor demand and supply.

Suggested Citation

  • Ben Bernanke & Olivier Blanchard, 2025. "What Caused the US Pandemic-Era Inflation?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 1-35, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:17:y:2025:i:3:p:1-35
    DOI: 10.1257/mac.20230195
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior

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