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Pandemic-era inflation dynamics in the euro area: the role of policy and non-policy demand and energy and non-energy supply factors

Author

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  • Barauskaitė Griškevičienė, Kristina
  • Brand, Claus
  • Nguyen, Anh Dinh Minh

Abstract

We analyze the sources of the pandemic-era inflation surge in the euro area using a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) model. By applying narrative, sign, zero, and inequality restrictions,this study is the first that jointly analyzes the inflationary effects of energy and non-energy supply and policy and non-policy demand factors, including fiscal policy, conventional and unconventional monetary policy. Factoring in that energy price dynamics also responded to aggregate demand conditions, we find that the pandemic-era inflation surge in the euro area was driven by a combination of supply and demand factors. Energy-related supply side constraints, even if less important than often estimated, were a key factor in the run up of inflation. Fiscal and monetary policies were accommodative but not the dominant drivers. JEL Classification: C11, C32, E31, E52

Suggested Citation

  • Barauskaitė Griškevičienė, Kristina & Brand, Claus & Nguyen, Anh Dinh Minh, 2026. "Pandemic-era inflation dynamics in the euro area: the role of policy and non-policy demand and energy and non-energy supply factors," Working Paper Series 3201, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20263201
    Note: 92649
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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