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Unconventional Fiscal Policy in Times of High Inflation

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  • Mai Dao
  • Allan Dizioli
  • Chris Jackson
  • Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
  • Mr. Daniel Leigh

Abstract

The surge in energy prices in 2022 has been a defining factor behind the increase in euro area inflation. We assess the impact of “unconventional fiscal policy,” defined as the set of fiscal measures, possibly expansionary, motivated by a desire to mute the effects of the increase in energy prices and to lower inflation. Overall, we find that these unconventional measures reduced euro area inflation by 1 to 2 percentage points in 2022 and may avoid an undershoot later on. When nonlinearities in the Phillips curve are taken into account, the net effect is to reduce inflation by about 0.5 percentage points in 2021-24, and keep it nearer to its target. About one-third to one-half of the reduction in 2022 reflects the direct effects of the measures on headline inflation, with much of the remainder reflecting the lower pass-through to core inflation. The fiscal measures were deficit-financed but had limited effects on raising inflation by stimulating demand and instead modestly helped to stabilize longer-term inflation expectations. Looking ahead, the prospective decline in inflation in the euro area is partly due to fortunate circumstances, with energy prices falling from their 2022 peaks and their pass-through effects fading, and with less economic overheating than in economies such as the United States. Implementing similar measures in the face of a more persistent increase in energy prices, or in a more overheated economy, would have caused a more persistent rise in core inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Mai Dao & Allan Dizioli & Chris Jackson & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Mr. Daniel Leigh, 2023. "Unconventional Fiscal Policy in Times of High Inflation," IMF Working Papers 2023/178, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2023/178
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    Cited by:

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    2. Haroutunian, Stephan & Bańkowski, Krzysztof & Bischl, Simeon & Bouabdallah, Othman & Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Leiner-Killinger, Nadine & O'Connell, Marguerite & Oleaga, Iñigo Arruga & Abraham, Laurent , 2024. "The path to the reformed EU fiscal framework: a monetary policy perspective," Occasional Paper Series 349, European Central Bank.
    3. Gökten, Meryem & Heimberger, Philipp & Lichtenberger, Andreas, 2024. "How far from full employment? The European unemployment problem revisited," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    4. Sebastian Dullien & David Gallusser & Silke Tober, 2024. "Historische Preissteigerungen in Deutschland, niedrige Inflation in der Schweiz: Die Rolle von Regulierung," IMK Working Paper 224-2024, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    5. Aspachs, Oriol & Graziano, Alberto & Mestres, Josep & Montalvo, Jose G. & Reynal-Querol, Marta, 2024. "Spending response to cash transfers to shield households from inflation: Evidence from bank accounts," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).
    6. Daniel Loureiro & Oscar Afonso & Paulo B. Vasconcelos, 2024. "Global directed technical change model with fiscal and monetary policies, and public debt," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 1-57, April.
    7. Mr. Jiaqian Chen & Ms. Era Dabla-Norris & Carlos Goncalves & Zoltan Jakab & Jesper Lindé, 2023. "Can Fiscal Consolidation help Central Banks Fight Inflation?," IMF Working Papers 2023/260, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Pallotti, Filippo & Paz-Pardo, Gonzalo & Slacalek, Jiri & Tristani, Oreste & Violante, Giovanni L., 2023. "Who bears the costs of inflation? Euro area households and the 2021–2022 shock," Working Paper Series 2877, European Central Bank.
    9. Peter Bofinger, 2024. "Fighting inflation with conventional and unconventional fiscal policy," IMK Studies 92-2024, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    10. Lu, Saite & Coutts, Ken & Gudgin, Graham, 2024. "Energy shocks and inflation episodes in the UK," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    11. Boyd, Laura & Keenan, Enda & McIndoe-Calder, Tara, 2023. "Earnings growth under high inflation," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 89-123, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; fiscal policy; monetary policy.; headline-inflation shock; inflation path; longer-term inflation expectation; inflation dynamics; counterfactual headline inflation; Energy prices; Labor markets; Inflation targeting; Global;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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