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Natural gas in Europe: The potential impact of disruptions to supply

Author

Listed:
  • Di Bella, Gabriel
  • Flanagan, Mark
  • Foda, Karim
  • Maslova, Svitlana
  • Pienkowski, Alex
  • Stuermer, Martin
  • Toscani, Frederik

Abstract

This paper studies the economic impact of a potential full disruption of Russian pipeline gas flows to Europe. We apply a modeling framework that takes into account frictions within the pipeline infrastructure, and compare results to those from a framework assuming a fully integrated EU market. Our findings suggest that the most vulnerable countries in Eastern Europe – Hungary, the Slovak Republic and Czechia – could have faced shortages of as much as 40% of gas consumption and gross domestic product shrinking by up to 6% in the summer of 2022 in the event of a full shutoff with severe pipeline frictions. The effects on Austria, Germany and Italy could also have been significant, depending on the remaining pipeline bottlenecks. Ex post, the observed output losses in Europe were lower, more in line with results from the fully integrated market framework, because (i) concerted efforts were made to keep the Europen gas market as integrated as possible, and (ii) Russian pipeline gas never fully ceased. Overall, the paper shows that integrated energy markets with a resilient infrastructure help to buffer the economic effects of energy supply shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Di Bella, Gabriel & Flanagan, Mark & Foda, Karim & Maslova, Svitlana & Pienkowski, Alex & Stuermer, Martin & Toscani, Frederik, 2024. "Natural gas in Europe: The potential impact of disruptions to supply," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:138:y:2024:i:c:s0140988324004857
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107777
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    Cited by:

    1. Gritz, Alexandra & Wolff, Guntram, 2024. "Gas and energy security in Germany and central and Eastern Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    2. Simone Emiliozzi & Fabrizio Ferriani & Andrea Gazzani, 2023. "The European energy crisis and the consequences for the global natural gas market," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 824, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Ferriani, Fabrizio & Gazzani, Andrea, 2023. "The impact of the war in Ukraine on energy prices: Consequences for firms’ financial performance," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 221-230.
    4. Qian, Lanping & Bai, Yang & Wang, Wenya & Meng, Fanyi & Chen, Zhisong, 2023. "Natural gas crisis, system resilience and emergency responses: A China case," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    5. Martínez-García, Miguel Á. & Ramos-Carvajal, Carmen & Cámara, Ángeles, 2023. "Consequences of the energy measures derived from the war in Ukraine on the level of prices of EU countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).
    6. Sigit Perdana & Marc Vielle & Maxime Schenckery, 2022. "European Economic impacts of cutting energy imports from Russia : A computable general equilibrium analysis," Post-Print hal-03887431, HAL.
    7. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Andrea Gazzani, 2023. "Natural gas and the macroeconomy: not all energy shocks are alike," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1428, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    8. Paul Ghelasi & Florian Ziel, 2024. "From day-ahead to mid and long-term horizons with econometric electricity price forecasting models," Papers 2406.00326, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
    9. O'Connell, Marguerite & Abraham, Laurent & Oleaga, Iñigo Arruga, 2023. "The legal and institutional feasibility of an EU Climate and Energy Security Fund," Occasional Paper Series 313, European Central Bank.
    10. Adolfsen, Jakob Feveile & Ferrari Minesso, Massimo & Mork, Jente Esther & Van Robays, Ine, 2024. "Gas price shocks and euro area inflation," Working Paper Series 2905, European Central Bank.
    11. Anna Bohdan & Sabina Klosa & Urszula Romaniuk, 2023. "Fluctuations of Natural Gas Prices for Households in the 2017–2022 Period—Polish Case Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-19, February.
    12. Nikas, Alexandros & Frilingou, Natasha & Heussaff, Conall & Fragkos, Panagiotis & Mittal, Shivika & Sampedro, Jon & Giarola, Sara & Sasse, Jan-Philipp & Rinaldi, Lorenzo & Doukas, Haris & Gambhir, Aja, 2024. "Three different directions in which the European Union could replace Russian natural gas," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    13. Marcelo Azevedo Benetti & Florin Iov, 2023. "A Novel Scheme to Allocate the Green Energy Transportation Costs—Application to Carbon Captured and Hydrogen," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(7), pages 1-20, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy supply; Natural gas; Supply shocks; Aggregate output effects; Market integration; Pipelines;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • L71 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Hydrocarbon Fuels
    • L95 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Gas Utilities; Pipelines; Water Utilities
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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