IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdi/opques/qef_824_23.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The European energy crisis and the consequences for the global natural gas market

Author

Listed:
  • Simone Emiliozzi

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Fabrizio Ferriani

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Andrea Gazzani

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 led to severe disruptions in the European gas market, with significant repercussions on a global scale. The conflict caused a surge in energy prices, a major reshuffling of global natural gas flows, and a shift in the policy-makers' agendas towards energy supply security. This paper describes the global gas market and analyses the consequences of the war, focusing in particular on the European gas market and on global LNG trade flows. We first review the characteristics of the gas market in terms of both pricing benchmarks and contractual terms. Next, we analyse the changes to LNG and natural gas production, consumption, and trade flows throughout the 2022-23 energy crisis. Finally, we review the main policy response to the energy crisis and present some considerations on the gas market outlook.

Suggested Citation

  • Simone Emiliozzi & Fabrizio Ferriani & Andrea Gazzani, 2023. "The European energy crisis and the consequences for the global natural gas market," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 824, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_824_23
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2023-0824/QEF_824_23.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:bre:polbrf:node_9197 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Przemyslaw Kowalski & Clarisse Legendre, 2023. "Raw materials critical for the green transition: Production, international trade and export restrictions," OECD Trade Policy Papers 269, OECD Publishing.
    3. Rüdiger Bachmann & David Baqaee & Christian Bayer & Moritz Kuhn & Andreas Löschel & Benjamin Moll & Andreas Peichl & Karen Pittel & Moritz Schularick, 2022. "What if? The economic effects for Germany of a stop of energy imports from Russia," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03881469, HAL.
    4. Boungou, Whelsy & Yatié, Alhonita, 2022. "The impact of the Ukraine–Russia war on world stock market returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    5. Leruth, Luc & Mazarei, Adnan & Regibeau, Pierre & Renneboog, Luc, 2022. "Green Energy Depends on Critical Minerals. Who Controls the Supply Chains?," Discussion Paper 2022-024, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    6. Ferriani, Fabrizio & Veronese, Giovanni, 2022. "Hedging and investment trade-offs in the U.S. oil industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    7. Mr. Anil Ari & Philipp Engler & Gloria Li & Manasa Patnam & Ms. Laura Valderrama, 2023. "Energy Support for Firms in Europe: Best Practice Considerations and Recent Experience," IMF Working Papers 2023/197, International Monetary Fund.
    8. repec:bre:wpaper:node_8622 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Gabriel Di Bella & Mr. Mark J Flanagan & Karim Foda & Svitlana Maslova & Alex Pienkowski & Martin Stuermer & Mr. Frederik G Toscani, 2022. "Natural Gas in Europe: The Potential Impact of Disruptions to Supply," IMF Working Papers 2022/145, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Corneli, Flavia & Ferriani, Fabrizio & Gazzani, Andrea, 2023. "Macroeconomic news, the financial cycle and the commodity cycle: The Chinese footprint," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    11. Adolfsen, Jakob Feveile & Kuik, Friderike & Schuler, Tobias & Lis, Eliza, 2022. "The impact of the war in Ukraine on euro area energy markets," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 4.
    12. Alessandro Borin & Francesco Paolo Conteduca & Enrica Di Stefano & Vanessa Gunnella & Michele Mancini & Ludovic Panon, 2022. "Quantitative assessment of the economic impact of the trade disruptions following the Russian invasion of Ukraine," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 700, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    13. Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Dorrucci, Ettore, 2023. "Update on euro area fiscal policy responses to the energy crisis and high inflation," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 2.
    14. Francesco Corsello & Marco Flaccadoro & Stefania Villa, 2023. "Quantity versus price dynamics: the role of energy and bottlenecks in the Italian industrial sector," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 781, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    15. Izzeldin, Marwan & Muradoğlu, Yaz Gülnur & Pappas, Vasileios & Petropoulou, Athina & Sivaprasad, Sheeja, 2023. "The impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on global financial markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ferriani, Fabrizio & Gazzani, Andrea, 2023. "The impact of the war in Ukraine on energy prices: Consequences for firms’ financial performance," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 221-230.
    2. Adolfsen, Jakob Feveile & Ferrari Minesso, Massimo & Mork, Jente Esther & Van Robays, Ine, 2024. "Gas price shocks and euro area inflation," Working Paper Series 2905, European Central Bank.
    3. Grebe, Moritz & Kandemir, Sinem & Tillmann, Peter, 2023. "Uncertainty about the war in Ukraine: Measurement and effects on the German business cycle," IMFS Working Paper Series 184, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    4. Furdui Călin & Șfabu Dorina Teodora, 2023. "The European Banks Under the Shock of the Russian Invasion of 2022: An Event Study Approach," Studia Universitatis Babeș-Bolyai Oeconomica, Sciendo, vol. 68(1), pages 62-77, April.
    5. Ferriani, Fabrizio & Gazzani, Andrea, 2023. "The invasion of Ukraine and the energy crisis: Comparative advantages in equity valuations," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PD).
    6. Soojung Ahn & Dongin Kim & Sandro Steinbach, 2023. "The impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on grain and oilseed trade," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 291-299, January.
    7. Sirgit Perdana & Marc Vielle & Maxime Schenkery, 2022. "European Economic Impacts of Cutting Energy imports from Russia : a Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers hal-03898833, HAL.
    8. Chishti, Muhammad Zubair & Khalid, Ali Awais & Sana, Moniba, 2023. "Conflict vs sustainability of global energy, agricultural and metal markets: A lesson from Ukraine-Russia war," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    9. Egan, Paul & Bergin, Adele & O'Toole, Conor, 2023. "The potential impact of the war in Ukraine on the Irish economy," Papers WP759, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    10. Steinbach, Sandro, 2023. "The Russia–Ukraine war and global trade reallocations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    11. Chen, Shengming & Bouteska, Ahmed & Sharif, Taimur & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul, 2023. "The Russia–Ukraine war and energy market volatility: A novel application of the volatility ratio in the context of natural gas," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    12. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Andrea Gazzani, 2023. "Natural gas and the macroeconomy: not all energy shocks are alike," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1428, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    13. Moritz Grebe & Sinem Kandemir & Peter Tillmann, 2023. "Uncertainty about the War in Ukraine: Measurement and Effects on the German Business Cycle," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202314, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    14. Klose, Jens, 2024. "Empirical effects of sanctions and support measures on stock prices and exchange rates in the Russia–Ukraine war," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    15. Ahn, Soojung & Kim, Dongin & Steinbach, Sandro, 2023. "Global Grain Trade Implications of the Russia-Ukraine War," 2023 Annual Meeting, July 23-25, Washington D.C. 335482, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    16. Di-Comite, Francesco & Pasimeni, Paolo, 2022. "Decoupling from Russia," Single Market Economics Papers WP2022/4, Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs (European Commission), Chief Economist Team.
    17. Gaio, Luiz Eduardo & Stefanelli, Nelson Oliveira & Pimenta, Tabajara & Bonacim, Carlos Alberto Grespan & Gatsios, Rafael Confetti, 2022. "The impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on market efficiency: Evidence for the developed stock market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    18. Caravella, Serenella & Crespi, Francesco & Cucignatto, Giacomo & Guarascio, Dario, 2023. "Technological Sovereignty and Strategic Dependencies: The case of the Photovoltaic Supply Chain," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1330, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    19. Javier Quintana, 2022. "Economic consequences of a hypothetical suspension of Russia-EU trade," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue 2/2022.
    20. Martin, Philippe & Fontagné, Lionel & Orefice, Gianluca, 2023. "The Many Channels of Firm's Adjustment to Energy Shocks: Evidence from France," CEPR Discussion Papers 18262, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    natural gas; energy crisis; LNG; fragmentation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L95 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Gas Utilities; Pipelines; Water Utilities
    • P28 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Natural Resources; Environment
    • Q35 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Hydrocarbon Resources

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_824_23. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdigvit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.