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Assessment of banking risk in the context of the oil and gas bubbles

Author

Listed:
  • Dell'Atti, Stefano
  • Paltrinieri, Andrea
  • Di Tommaso, Caterina
  • Onorato, Grazia

Abstract

This study offers empirical evidence indicating the transfer of price bubbles from the oil and gas markets to banking risk following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 causing the outburst of a major energy crisis. Against this backdrop, the objective of this paper is threefold. First, we employ the Log-Periodic Power Law Singularity (LPPLS) model, to identify both positive and negative bubbles within the oil, gas, and banking markets, characterized by pronounced price fluctuations. As a second objective, the study employs a bivariate vector autoregression (VAR) model, to analyze the explosive price movements within the oil and gas markets and banking risk using the LPPLS series. To reach the third objective, we apply an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model with cointegration, to scrutinize both the long-run and short-run effects of the oil and gas market on banking risk. The paper contributes to the literature on the predictability of bubbles in oil and gas markets and the shift of the transmission bubbles in other markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Dell'Atti, Stefano & Paltrinieri, Andrea & Di Tommaso, Caterina & Onorato, Grazia, 2025. "Assessment of banking risk in the context of the oil and gas bubbles," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:147:y:2025:i:c:s0140988325004177
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108593
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil; Gas; Bubbles; Banking risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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