Quantitative assessment of the economic impact of the trade disruptions following the Russian invasion of Ukraine

We provide a quantification of the impact through international trade of the restrictive measures and related trade disruptions following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. We first exploit the multi-sector, multi-country, general equilibrium trade model by Antràs and Chor (2018). In this framework, Russia would suffer greatly from trade disruptions. Adding restrictive measures on energy exports would further amplify this loss. For sanctioning countries, the welfare impact is modest. This result arises mainly because the used model allows for a high degree of substitutability across inputs and countries, a feature arguably unrealistic especially in the short-run. When we relax this assumption by relying on the framework proposed by Bachmann et al. (2022) extended to a multi-country setting, we show that the impact on sanctioning countries might increase markedly in the short run and would be very sensitive to small changes in countries’ possibility to diversify away from Russian energy.