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What if? The Economic Effects for Germany of a Stop of Energy Imports from Russia

Author

Listed:
  • Ruediger Bachmann
  • David Baqaee
  • Christian Bayer
  • Moritz Kuhn
  • Andreas Löschel
  • Benjamin Moll
  • Andreas Peichl
  • Karen Pittel
  • Moritz Schularick

Abstract

This article discusses the economic effects of a potential cut-off of the German economy from Russian energy imports. We show that the effects are likely to be substantial but manageable. In the short run, a stop of Russian energy imports would lead to a GDP decline in range between 0.5% and 3% (cf. the GDP decline in 2020 during the pandemic was 4.5%).

Suggested Citation

  • Ruediger Bachmann & David Baqaee & Christian Bayer & Moritz Kuhn & Andreas Löschel & Benjamin Moll & Andreas Peichl & Karen Pittel & Moritz Schularick, 2022. "What if? The Economic Effects for Germany of a Stop of Energy Imports from Russia," EconPol Policy Reports 36, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:econpr:_36
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    4. Maximilian Auffhammer & Edward Rubin, 2018. "Natural Gas Price Elasticities and Optimal Cost Recovery Under Consumer Heterogeneity: Evidence from 300 million natural gas bills," NBER Working Papers 24295, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Jevgenijs Steinbuks, 2012. "Interfuel Substitution and Energy Use in the U.K. Manufacturing Sector," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
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