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What if? The macroeconomic and distributional effects for Germany of a stop of energy imports from Russia

Author

Listed:
  • Bachmann, Rüdiger
  • Baqaee, David Rezza
  • Bayer, Christian
  • Kuhn, Moritz
  • Löschel, Andreas
  • Moll, Ben
  • Peichl, Andreas
  • Pittel, Karen
  • Schularick, Moritz

Abstract

This paper discusses the economic effects of a potential cut-off of the German economy from Russian energy imports. We use a multi-sector open-economy model and a simplified approach based on an aggregate production function to estimate the effects of a shock to energy inputs. We show that the effects are likely to be substantial but manageable because of substitution of energy imports and reallocation along the production chain. In the short run, a stop of Russian energy imports would lead to an output loss relative to the baseline situation, without the energy cut-off, in the range 0.5% to 3% of GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Bachmann, Rüdiger & Baqaee, David Rezza & Bayer, Christian & Kuhn, Moritz & Löschel, Andreas & Moll, Ben & Peichl, Andreas & Pittel, Karen & Schularick, Moritz, 2024. "What if? The macroeconomic and distributional effects for Germany of a stop of energy imports from Russia," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 124094, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:124094
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    File URL: https://researchonline.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/124094/
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Katia Gallegos Torres & Jakob Lehr, 2026. "The Labor Market Impact of the Energy Crisis: Evidence from Germany," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2025_730, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    4. Kagerer, B., 2024. "Geopolitics and corporate risk: Evidence from EU-Russia conflict shocks," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2471, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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    6. Jonas Adolph & Wilhelm Kohler & Gernot Müller, 2025. "Geopolitical Conflict and Trade: Montesquieu Revisited," CESifo Working Paper Series 12311, CESifo.
    7. Cecilia Bellora & Lionel Fontagné & Christophe Gouel & Youssef Salib, 2025. "Carbon Bias of Tariffs: Are Fossil fuels the Culprits?," Working Papers 2025-08, CEPII research center.
    8. Jochen Güntner & Magnus Reif & Maik Wolters, 2024. "Sudden stop: Supply and demand shocks in the German natural gas market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(7), pages 1282-1300, November.
    9. Nikou, Vasilis, 2025. "From exit to exposure: Gas import shocks and macroeconomic asymmetries in the wake of Europe's coal phaseout," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 335(C).
    10. Olmez Turan, Merve & Gilbert, Ben & Flamand, Tulay, 2025. "How good are weather shocks for identifying energy elasticities? A LASSO-IV approach to European natural gas demand," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    11. Elliott, M. & Jackson, M. O., 2026. "Supply Chain Disruptions, the Structure of Production Networks, and the Impact of Globalization," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2625, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    12. Boeck, Maximilian & Zörner, Thomas O., 2025. "Natural gas prices, inflation expectations, and the pass-through to euro area inflation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    13. Robert Lehmann & Christoph Schult, 2024. "Auswirkung eines potenziellen Gasdefizits auf die industrielle Wertschöpfung der Bundesländer," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 31(06), pages 15-16, December.
    14. Boonman, Hettie & Rodriguez, Mauricio, 2025. "Mitigating foreign fossil fuel shocks: The role of renewable energy and industrial electrification in The Netherlands," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    15. Adolfsen, Jakob Feveile & Ferrari Minesso, Massimo & Mork, Jente Esther & Van Robays, Ine, 2024. "Gas price shocks and euro area inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    16. Ipsen, Leonhard & Aminian, Armin & Schulz, Jan, 2025. "Stress-testing Inflation Exposure: Systemically significant prices and asymmetric shock propagation in the EU," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 713-724.
    17. Klaus Abberger & Arbërim Bibaj & Hans Gersbach & Alexis Perakis & Alexander Rathke & Samad Sarferaz & Kieran Walsh, 2026. "Tariffs and Firm Expectations," CESifo Working Paper Series 12510, CESifo.
    18. Natalia Fabra & Clément Leblanc & Mateus Souza, 2025. "Unpacking the Distributional Implications of the Energy Crisis: Lessons from the Iberian Electricity Market," CESifo Working Paper Series 12093, CESifo.
    19. Casagrande, Sara & Dallago, Bruno, 2025. "The economic and geostrategic role of LNG in EU energy transition," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 387-404.

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    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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