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Macroeconomic news, the financial cycle and the commodity cycle: The Chinese footprint

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  • Corneli, Flavia
  • Ferriani, Fabrizio
  • Gazzani, Andrea

Abstract

China has become a major player in the global economy. The analysis, based on a new and original database of Chinese macroeconomic surprises, shows the significant impact that these surprises have on equity markets worldwide, as well as on commodity prices, on the US nominal effective exchange rate and on the VIX Index. We also establish that positive Chinese macroeconomic news is associated with the expansion of global trade and industrial production. Overall, we provide evidence of the growing role of the Chinese economy as a driving force for both the real and the financial global cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Corneli, Flavia & Ferriani, Fabrizio & Gazzani, Andrea, 2023. "Macroeconomic news, the financial cycle and the commodity cycle: The Chinese footprint," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:231:y:2023:i:c:s016517652300294x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111269
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    Cited by:

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    2. Camila Gutierrez & Javier Turen & Alejandro Vicondoa, 2025. "Global Financial Spillovers of Chinese Macroeconomic Surprises," IMF Working Papers 2025/133, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Chang Ma & Alessandro Rebucci & Sili Zhou, 2025. "A Nascent International Financial Channel of China’s Monetary Policy Transmission," NBER Working Papers 34291, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Fabrizio Ferriani & Andrea Gazzani, 2025. "The international transmission of Chinese monetary policy and the commodity channel," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1510, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Camila Gutierrez & Javier Turen & Alejandro Vicondoa, 2024. "Chinese Macroeconomic Surprises and the Global Financial Cycle," Documentos de Trabajo 577, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..

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    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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