IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ioe/doctra/577.html

Chinese Macroeconomic Surprises and the Global Financial Cycle

Author

Listed:
  • Camila Gutierrez
  • Javier Turen
  • Alejandro Vicondoa

Abstract

We study the international spillover effects of a macroeconomic surprise in China. Using high-frequency data, we show that the surprise component of the release of macro data in China brings a sizeable and significant effect on asset prices and global risk, across different economies. We document that the dynamic effect of Chinese Macro surprises is both significant and persistent for a broad range of financial variables worldwide. When assessing the relative importance of Chinese surprises relative to other known drivers of the Global Financial Cycle, we show that while the Monetary Policy in the US still accounts for most of the reaction, our measure is equally relevant to account for the reaction of commodities and the EMBI.

Suggested Citation

  • Camila Gutierrez & Javier Turen & Alejandro Vicondoa, 2024. "Chinese Macroeconomic Surprises and the Global Financial Cycle," Documentos de Trabajo 577, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    • Handle: RePEc:ioe:doctra:577
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.economia.uc.cl/docs/doctra/dt-577.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Òscar Jordà, 2005. "Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 161-182, March.
    2. Corneli, Flavia & Ferriani, Fabrizio & Gazzani, Andrea, 2023. "Macroeconomic news, the financial cycle and the commodity cycle: The Chinese footprint," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    3. Yu-Chin Chen & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2010. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(3), pages 1145-1194.
    4. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2018. "High-Frequency Identification of Monetary Non-Neutrality: The Information Effect," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(3), pages 1283-1330.
    5. Marek Jarociński & Peter Karadi, 2020. "Deconstructing Monetary Policy Surprises—The Role of Information Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 1-43, April.
    6. Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H. & Wang, Shing-Yi B. & Wright, Jonathan H., 2007. "The high-frequency response of exchange rates and interest rates to macroeconomic announcements," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1051-1068, May.
    7. Diego R. Känzig, 2021. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Supply News: Evidence from OPEC Announcements," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(4), pages 1092-1125, April.
    8. Darrell Duffie, 2010. "Presidential Address: Asset Price Dynamics with Slow‐Moving Capital," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(4), pages 1237-1267, August.
    9. John H. Boyd & Jian Hu & Ravi Jagannathan, 2005. "The Stock Market's Reaction to Unemployment News: Why Bad News Is Usually Good for Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 649-672, April.
    10. Mark Gertler & Peter Karadi, 2015. "Monetary Policy Surprises, Credit Costs, and Economic Activity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 44-76, January.
    11. Anna Sznajderska & Mariusz Kapuściński, 2020. "Macroeconomic spillover effects of the Chinese economy," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(4), pages 992-1019, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Camila Gutierrez & Javier Turen & Alejandro Vicondoa, 2025. "Global Financial Spillovers of Chinese Macroeconomic Surprises," IMF Working Papers 2025/133, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Kerstin Bernoth, 2025. "Dovish Coos or Hawkish Screech? From Central Bank Talk to Economic Walk," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2137, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Lukas Hack & Davud Rostam-Afschar, 2024. "Understanding Firm Dynamics with Daily Data," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2024_593, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    4. Priit Jeenas, 2023. "Firm Balance Sheet Liquidity, Monetary Policy Shocks, and Investment Dynamics," Working Papers 1409, Barcelona School of Economics.
    5. Tomás Opazo, 2023. "The Heterogeneous Effect of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence for US Households," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 992, Central Bank of Chile.
    6. Lu, Dong & Tang, Huoqing & Zhang, Chengsi, 2023. "China's monetary policy surprises and corporate real investment," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    7. Bu, Chunya & Rogers, John & Wu, Wenbin, 2021. "A unified measure of Fed monetary policy shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 331-349.
    8. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Thwaites, Gregory & Vicondoa, Alejandro, 2020. "Monetary policy transmission in the United Kingdom: A high frequency identification approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    9. Laumer, Sebastian & Schaffer, Matthew, 2025. "Monetary policy transmission under supply chain pressure," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    10. Jongrim Ha, 2020. "Nonlinear transmission of U.S. monetary policy shocks to international financial markets," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 350-369, December.
    11. Ilzetzki, Ethan & Jin, Keyu, 2021. "The puzzling change in the international transmission of U.S. macroeconomic policy shocks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    12. Karau, Sören, 2023. "Monetary policy and Bitcoin," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    13. Andrade, Philippe & Ferroni, Filippo, 2021. "Delphic and odyssean monetary policy shocks: Evidence from the euro area," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 816-832.
    14. Luca Dedola & Georgios Georgiadis & Johannes Gräb & Arnaud Mehl, 2018. "Does a Big Bazooka Matter? Central Bank Balance-Sheet Policies and Exchange Rates," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_024, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    15. Hartwig, Benny & Lieberknecht, Philipp, 2020. "Monetary policy, firm exit and productivity," Discussion Papers 61/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    16. Alessandri, Piergiorgio & Gazzani, Andrea, 2025. "Natural gas and the macroeconomy: Not all energy shocks are alike," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    17. Daniele Colombo & Francesco Toni, 2025. "Understanding Gas Price Shocks: Elasticities, Volatility and Macroeconomic Transmission," GREDEG Working Papers 2025-20, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    18. De Santis, Roberto A. & Tornese, Tommaso, 2024. "US monetary policy is more powerful in low economic growth regimes," Working Paper Series 2919, European Central Bank.
    19. Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric & Pool, Sebastiaan, 2025. "Interest rate control and the transmission of monetary policy," Working Paper Series 3048, European Central Bank.
    20. Jochen Güntner, 2022. "Central bank information and private‐sector expectations," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(7), pages 1372-1385, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ioe:doctra:577. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jaime Casassus (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iepuccl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.