IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/rensus/v210y2025ics1364032124009493.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Midterm perspectives on natural gas after the European gas crisis: Reviewing German energy transition studies

Author

Listed:
  • Brunsch, Daniel
  • Radek, Julian
  • Ostmeier, Lars
  • Weber, Christoph

Abstract

The situation on the European natural gas market is still tense. Due to the possibility of a gas shortage and higher prices, gas in Germany has been partially replaced by coal and oil. At the same time, Germany is aiming to reach climate neutrality by 2045, which has led to various studies in which climate neutrality scenarios have been modeled. Are the paths described in the studies—especially in the medium term—still valid in view of the new circumstances? In this work, six studies published since 2021, which present a total of 30 scenarios, are considered. Particular focus is placed on the medium-term consumption of natural gas and hydrogen. The goal is to assess whether the suspended natural gas imports from Russia pose a risk of natural gas shortage and whether increasing liquified natural gas imports, increased gas savings, or substitution with (green) hydrogen can fill the supply gap. After examining the supply situation in all scenarios, they were further analyzed to identify the assumptions that have a high impact on the gas supply situation. According to the calculations in this analysis, in 28 of 30 examined scenarios, a supply gap will occur in at least one year in the next up to 2030.

Suggested Citation

  • Brunsch, Daniel & Radek, Julian & Ostmeier, Lars & Weber, Christoph, 2025. "Midterm perspectives on natural gas after the European gas crisis: Reviewing German energy transition studies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:210:y:2025:i:c:s1364032124009493
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2024.115223
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032124009493
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.rser.2024.115223?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gabriel Felbermayr & Hendrik Mahlkow & Alexander Sandkamp, 2023. "Cutting through the value chain: the long-run effects of decoupling the East from the West," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 50(1), pages 75-108, February.
    2. Rüdiger Bachmann & David Baqaee & Christian Bayer & Moritz Kuhn & Andreas Löschel & Benjamin Moll & Andreas Peichl & Karen Pittel & Moritz Schularick, 2022. "What if? The economic effects for Germany of a stop of energy imports from Russia," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03881469, HAL.
    3. Ruhnau, Oliver & Bannik, Sergej & Otten, Sydney & Praktiknjo, Aaron & Robinius, Martin, 2019. "Direct or indirect electrification? A review of heat generation and road transport decarbonisation scenarios for Germany 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 989-999.
    4. Berger, Eva M. & Bialek, Sylwia & Garnadt, Niklas & Grimm, Veronika & Other, Lars & Salzmann, Leonard & Schnitzer, Monika & Truger, Achim & Wieland, Volker, 2022. "A potential sudden stop of energy imports from Russia: Effects on energy security and economic output in Germany and the EU," Working Papers 01/2022, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    5. Oliver Ruhnau & Clemens Stiewe & Jarusch Muessel & Lion Hirth, 2023. "Natural gas savings in Germany during the 2022 energy crisis," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 8(6), pages 621-628, June.
    6. Di Bella, Gabriel & Flanagan, Mark & Foda, Karim & Maslova, Svitlana & Pienkowski, Alex & Stuermer, Martin & Toscani, Frederik, 2024. "Natural gas in Europe: The potential impact of disruptions to supply," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    7. Franziska Holz & Robin Sogalla & Christian von Hirschhausen & Claudia Kemfert, 2022. "Energy Supply Security in Germany Can Be Guaranteed even without Natural Gas from Russia," DIW focus 7, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Christoph Halser & Florentina Paraschiv, 2022. "Pathways to Overcoming Natural Gas Dependency on Russia—The German Case," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-24, July.
    9. Krebs, Tom, 2022. "Economic consequences of a sudden stop of energy imports: The case of natural gas in Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers 22-021, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, revised 2022.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pichler, Anton & Hurt, Jan & Reisch, Tobias & Stangl, Johannes & Thurner, Stefan, 2024. "Economic impacts of a drastic gas supply shock and short-term mitigation strategies," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    2. Benjamin Moll & Moritz Schularick & Georg Zachmann, 2023. "Nicht einmal eine Rezession: Die große deutsche Gasdebatte im Rückblick," ECONtribute Policy Brief Series 048, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    3. Jochen Güntner & Magnus Reif & Maik Wolters, 2024. "Sudden stop: Supply and demand shocks in the German natural gas market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(7), pages 1282-1300, November.
    4. Alessandro Borin & Francesco Paolo Conteduca & Enrica Di Stefano & Vanessa Gunnella & Michele Mancini & Ludovic Panon, 2022. "Quantitative assessment of the economic impact of the trade disruptions following the Russian invasion of Ukraine," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 700, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Borin, Alessandro & Conteduca, Francesco Paolo & Di Stefano, Enrica & Gunnella, Vanessa & Mancini, Michele & Panon, Ludovic, 2023. "Trade decoupling from Russia," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 25-44.
    6. Simone Emiliozzi & Fabrizio Ferriani & Andrea Gazzani, 2025. "The European Energy Crisis and the Consequences for the Global Natural Gas Market," The Energy Journal, , vol. 46(1), pages 119-145, January.
    7. Ludovic Panon & Laura Lebastard & Michele Mancini & Alessandro Borin & Peonare Caka & Gianmarco Cariola & Dennis Essers & Elena Gentili & Andrea Linarello & Tullia Padellini & Francisco Requena & Jaco, 2024. "Inputs in Distress: Geoeconomic Fragmentation and Firms’ Sourcing," Working Papers 2436, Banco de España.
    8. Alessandri, Piergiorgio & Gazzani, Andrea, 2025. "Natural gas and the macroeconomy: Not all energy shocks are alike," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    9. Daniele Colombo & Francesco Toni, 2025. "Understanding Gas Price Shocks: Elasticities, Volatility and Macroeconomic Transmission," GREDEG Working Papers 2025-20, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    10. Ricardo Hausmann & Ulrich Schetter & Muhammed A Yildirim, 2024. "On the design of effective sanctions: the case of bans on exports to Russia," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 39(117), pages 109-153.
    11. Clemens, Marius & Röger, Werner, 2024. "What is the difference between fossil fuel embargo and price shocks?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    12. Galvin, Ray, 2024. "The economic losses of energy-efficiency renovation of Germany's older dwellings: The size of the problem and the financial challenge it presents," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    13. Rüdiger Bachmann & David Baqaee & Christian Bayer & Moritz Kuhn & Andreas Löschel & Benjamin Moll & Andreas Peichl & Karen Pittel & Moritz Schularick, 2024. "What if? The macroeconomic and distributional effects for Germany of a stop of energy imports from Russia," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 91(364), pages 1157-1200, October.
    14. Becko, John Sturm, 2024. "A theory of economic sanctions as terms-of-trade manipulation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    15. Adolfsen, Jakob Feveile & Ferrari Minesso, Massimo & Mork, Jente Esther & Van Robays, Ine, 2024. "Gas price shocks and euro area inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    16. Sigit Perdana & Marc Vielle & Maxime Schenckery, 2022. "European Economic impacts of cutting energy imports from Russia : A computable general equilibrium analysis," Post-Print hal-03887431, HAL.
    17. Ferriani, Fabrizio & Gazzani, Andrea, 2023. "The impact of the war in Ukraine on energy prices: Consequences for firms’ financial performance," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 221-230.
    18. Alexander Sandkamp, 2022. "Reshoring by Decree? The Effects of Decoupling Europe from Global Value Chains," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 57(6), pages 359-362, November.
    19. Jakub Sokolowski & Marek Antosiewicz & Piotr Lewandowski, 2022. "The economic effects of stopping Russian energy Import in Poland," IBS Research Reports 01/2022, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.
    20. Sophie M. Behr & Till Köveker & Merve Kücük, 2025. "Understanding Energy Savings in a Crisis: The Role of Prices and Non-monetary Factors," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2112, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:210:y:2025:i:c:s1364032124009493. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600126/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.