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Market Size and Supply Disruptions: Sharing the Pain of a Potential Russian Gas Shut-off to the European Union

Author

Listed:
  • Silvia Albrizio
  • Mr. John C Bluedorn
  • Mr. Christoffer Koch
  • Mr. Andrea Pescatori
  • Martin Stuermer

Abstract

We assess the supply-side effects on European Union (EU) economic activity if Russian gas imports were to suddenly cease. Unlike other studies, we account for the global scope of the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market. In the absence of frictions, an open-economy, multi-sector general equilibrium model suggests that the adverse economic impact on the EU shrinks five-fold if integration with the global LNG market is considered. While greater integration provides a buffer for the EU through trade, the flip side is that other LNG importers (such as Japan, South Korea, and Pakistan) see adverse effects from higher prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Silvia Albrizio & Mr. John C Bluedorn & Mr. Christoffer Koch & Mr. Andrea Pescatori & Martin Stuermer, 2022. "Market Size and Supply Disruptions: Sharing the Pain of a Potential Russian Gas Shut-off to the European Union," IMF Working Papers 2022/143, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2022/143
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    1. Cornejo, Magdalena & Hallack, Michelle & Matias, David, 2025. "The role of renewables in smoothing the impact of oil and gas price shocks on inflation: The LAC experience," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    2. Egan, Paul & Bergin, Adele & O'Toole, Conor, 2023. "The potential impact of the war in Ukraine on the Irish economy," Papers WP759, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    3. Benjamin Moll & Moritz Schularick & Georg Zachmann, 2023. "The Power of Substitution: The Great German Gas Debate in Retrospect," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 54(2 (Fall)), pages 395-481.
    4. Rüdiger Bachmann & David Baqaee & Christian Bayer & Moritz Kuhn & Andreas Löschel & Ben Mcwilliams & Benjamin Moll & Andreas Peichl & Karen Pittel & Moritz Schularick & Georg Zachmann, 2022. "How it can be done," Working Papers hal-03880930, HAL.
      • Rüdiger Bachmann & David Baqaee & Christian Bayer & Moritz Kuhn & Andreas Löschel & Ben Mcwilliams & Benjamin Moll & Andreas Peichl & Karen Pittel & Moritz Schularick & Georg Zachmann, 2022. "How it can be done," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-03880930, HAL.
      • Rüdiger Bachmann & David Baqaee & Christian Bayer & Moritz Kuhn & Andreas Löschel & Ben McWilliams & Benjamin Moll & Andreas Peichl & Karen Pittel & Moritz Schularick & Georg Zachmann, 2022. "How it can be done," ECONtribute Policy Brief Series 034, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    5. Di Bella, Gabriel & Flanagan, Mark & Foda, Karim & Maslova, Svitlana & Pienkowski, Alex & Stuermer, Martin & Toscani, Frederik, 2024. "Natural gas in Europe: The potential impact of disruptions to supply," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    6. Adolfsen, Jakob Feveile & Ferrari Minesso, Massimo & Mork, Jente Esther & Van Robays, Ine, 2024. "Gas price shocks and euro area inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    7. Olmez Turan, Merve & Gilbert, Ben & Flamand, Tulay, 2025. "How good are weather shocks for identifying energy elasticities? A LASSO-IV approach to European natural gas demand," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    8. Anna Bohdan & Sabina Klosa & Urszula Romaniuk, 2023. "Fluctuations of Natural Gas Prices for Households in the 2017–2022 Period—Polish Case Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-19, February.
    9. Ndiaye, Abdoulaye, 2024. "A Theory of International Boycotts," CEPR Discussion Papers 18868, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Dao, Mai & Dizioli, Allan Gloe & Jackson, Chris & Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Leigh, Daniel, 2023. "Unconventional Fiscal Policy in Times of High Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 18435, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. McWilliams, Ben & Sgaravatti, Giovanni & Tagliapietra, Simone & Zachmann, Georg, 2023. "How would the European Union fare without Russian energy?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    12. Magdalena Cornejo & Michelle Hallack & Matias David, 2024. "The Transition to Renewables: Dampening the Impact of Fossil Fuel Price Shocks on Local Inflation," Working Papers 345, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    13. Cipollina, Maria & Dal Bianco, Silvia, 2025. "Trade sanctions and global value chains: The role of financial development and capital openness in emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    14. Ghironi, Fabio & Kim, Daisoon & Ozhan, Galip Kemal, 2025. "International trade and macroeconomic dynamics with sanctions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).

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