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International Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics with Sanctions

Author

Listed:
  • Ghironi, Fabio
  • Kim, Daisoon
  • Ozhan, Galip Kemal

Abstract

We develop a framework combining dynamic, intertemporal choices of general-equilibrium macro models with microfoundations of modern trade theory to study sanctions. In a two-country, two-sector setup, Home holds a comparative advantage in producing differentiated consumption goods via heterogeneous firms with endogenous entry, while Foreign in homogeneous intermediate goods from fixed number of firms. Sanctions include trade bans and financial restrictions excluding particular Foreign agents from markets. In our model, sanctions reallocate resources across and within countries, affecting production, exchange rates, and welfare, with larger welfare losses when targeting sectors of comparative disadvantage. Focusing only on long-run outcomes, overlooking initial dynamics, inaccurately assesses welfare impacts. Sanctions weaken international comovement and fragment markets but leave business cycles intact.

Suggested Citation

  • Ghironi, Fabio & Kim, Daisoon & Ozhan, Galip Kemal, 2024. "International Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics with Sanctions," CEPR Discussion Papers 19109, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19109
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    2. Funke, Michael & Wende, Adrian, 2025. "The Limited Effectiveness of Sanctions on Russia: Modeling Loopholes and Workarounds," VfS Annual Conference 2025 (Cologne): Revival of Industrial Policy 325396, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Aleksandr Shirobokov, 2025. "Sanctions Induced Terms of Trade Shocks and the Role of Lean Against the Wind Policy," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 211-242, June.
    4. Dmitry Rudenko, 2026. "Shifting realities: The unintended consequences of sanctions against Russia on the Finnish economy," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 81, pages 7-25.
    5. Funke, Michael & Wende, Adrian, 2025. "The limited effectiveness of sanctions on Russia: Modeling loopholes and workarounds," BOFIT Discussion Papers 4/2025, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    6. Erdal Yalcin & Gabriel Felbermayr & Heider Kariem & Aleksandra Kirilakha & Ohyun Kwon & Constantinos Syropoulos & Yoto V. Yotov, 2025. "The Global Sanctions Data Base—Release 4: The Heterogeneous Effects of the Sanctions on Russia," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(9), pages 2003-2017, September.
    7. Alishan Khan, 2026. "BRICS Trade Coalitions Under Financial Sanctions," Working Papers 202610, Center for Global Policy Analysis, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    8. Ghironi, Fabio & Kim, Daisoon & Ozhan, Galip Kemal, 2025. "International trade and macroeconomic dynamics with sanctions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    9. Bondarenko, Yevheniia & Lewis, Vivien & Rottner, Matthias & Schüler, Yves, 2024. "Geopolitical risk perceptions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    10. Vipin P. Veetil, 2026. "How Vulnerable is India's Economy to Foreign Sanctions?," Papers 2603.12128, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2026.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions

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