IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imk/wpaper/224-2024.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Historische Preissteigerungen in Deutschland, niedrige Inflation in der Schweiz: Die Rolle von Regulierung

Author

Listed:
  • Sebastian Dullien

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • David Gallusser

    (Schweizerischer Gewerkschaftsbund (SGB))

  • Silke Tober

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

Abstract

Als Folge der massiven Preisschocks 2021 und 2022 schnellte die HVPI-Rate in Deutschland teilweise auf über 11 %, überschritt in der Schweiz aber nur kurzzeitig 3 %. Entscheidend war, dass die Energiepreise in der Spitze in Deutschland 5,3 Prozentpunkte zur Inflation beitrugen (Oktober 2022) verglichen mit 1,5 Prozentpunkten in der Schweiz (Juni 2022) und weitgefasste Nahrungsmittel 3,1 Prozentpunkte verglichen mit 0,8 Prozentpunkten (März 2023). Dieser Beitrag untersucht die Rolle struktureller Unterschiede beim Durchwirken der internationalen Preisschocks auf die inländische Inflation. Von Bedeutung sind dabei erstens regulatorische Unterschiede und der ausgeprägte Protektionismus des Agrarsektors in der Schweiz. Ein zweiter Faktor sind unterschiedliche Warenkorbstrukturen. Eingriffe des Staates in die Preisbildung sowie Veränderungen indirekter Steuern und Abgaben begründen drittens, warum die Inflationsunterschiede nicht noch ausgeprägter ausfielen und warum die Strompreise in der Schweiz trotz der Bedeutung der Wasserkraft letztlich ähnlich stark anzogen wie in Deutschland. Demgegenüber dürfte die geldpolitische Reaktion bestenfalls eine untergeordnete Rolle gespielt haben, auch wenn die deutlichere Abwertung des Euro die externen Preisschocks verstärkt hat.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Dullien & David Gallusser & Silke Tober, 2024. "Historische Preissteigerungen in Deutschland, niedrige Inflation in der Schweiz: Die Rolle von Regulierung," IMK Working Paper 224-2024, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:imk:wpaper:224-2024
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.boeckler.de/pdf/p_imk_wp_224_2024.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Burstein, Ariel & Gopinath, Gita, 2014. "International Prices and Exchange Rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 391-451, Elsevier.
    2. Dao, Mai & Dizioli, Allan Gloe & Jackson, Chris & Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Leigh, Daniel, 2023. "Unconventional Fiscal Policy in Times of High Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 18435, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Andreas Bachmann, 2012. "Exchange rate pass-through to various price indices: empirical estimation using vector error correction models," Diskussionsschriften dp1205, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    4. Ernst Baltensperger & Peter Kugler, 2016. "The historical origins of the safe haven status of the Swiss franc:," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 67(02), pages 1-30, August.
    5. Jonas Stulz, 2007. "Exchange rate pass-through in Switzerland: Evidence from vector autoregressions," Economic Studies 2007-04, Swiss National Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alex Oktay, 2022. "Heterogeneity in the exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices: the Swiss franc appreciation of 2015," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 158(1), pages 1-20, December.
    2. Kristin Forbes & Ida Hjortsoe & Tsvetelina Nenova, 2020. "International Evidence on Shock-Dependent Exchange Rate Pass-Through," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(4), pages 721-763, December.
    3. Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2020. "A quarter century of inflation targeting & structural change in exchange rate pass-through: Evidence from the first three movers," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 42-61.
    4. Nasir, Muhammad Ali, 2020. "Forecasting inflation under uncertainty: The forgotten dog and the frisbee," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    5. Forbes, Kristin & Hjortsoe, Ida & Nenova, Tsvetelina, 2018. "The shocks matter: Improving our estimates of exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 255-275.
    6. Kristin Forbes, 2016. "Much Ado about Something Important: How do Exchange Rate Movements Affect Inflation?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 84(S1), pages 15-41, September.
    7. Žídek, Libor & Šuterová, Magdalena, 2017. "Did the exchange rate interventions enhance inflation in Switzerland?," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-95, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. Hernández, María Florencia, 2023. "Análisis del pass-through del tipo de cambio a la inflación en Argentina (2003-2020): un enfoque empírico," Nülan. Deposited Documents 4016, Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales, Centro de Documentación.
    9. Fernando Alvarez & Francesco Lippi & Juan Passadore, 2017. "Are State- and Time-Dependent Models Really Different?," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(1), pages 379-457.
    10. Jean-Pierre Danthine & Samuel Danthine, 2018. "On the rewards to international investing: a safe haven currency perspective," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 154(1), pages 1-12, December.
    11. M. Shahe Emran & Dilip Mookherjee & Forhad Shilpi & M. Helal Uddin, 2021. "Credit Rationing and Pass-Through in Supply Chains: Theory and Evidence from Bangladesh," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 202-236, July.
    12. Santiago Bazdresch & Adrian de la Garza & Alejandra Lelo de Larrea, 2018. "How Does the Economy Respond to a Depreciation? Evidence in the Dynamics of Profit Margins, Company Values and Retail Prices of Mexican Public Corporations, 2010-2017," 2018 Meeting Papers 863, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Békés, Gábor & Hornok, Cecília & Muraközy, Balázs, 2016. "Globalization and the markups of European firms," Kiel Working Papers 2044, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    14. Del Negro, Marco & Giannone, Domenico & Giannoni, Marc P. & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2019. "Global trends in interest rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 248-262.
    15. Dvir, Eyal & Strasser, Georg, 2018. "Does marketing widen borders? Cross-country price dispersion in the European car market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 134-149.
    16. Corbo, Vesna & Di Casola, Paola, 2018. "Conditional exchange rate pass-through: evidence from Sweden," Working Paper Series 352, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    17. Heathcote, Jonathan & Perri, Fabrizio, 2014. "Assessing International Efficiency," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 523-584, Elsevier.
    18. Xiaohua Bao & Hailiang Huang & Larry D Qiu & Xiaozhuo Wang, 2022. "Exchange rate expectations and exports: Firm-level evidence from China," Discussion Papers 2022-07, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    19. Castellares, Renzo & Toma, Hiroshi, 2020. "Effects of a mandatory local currency pricing law on the exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    20. Siklos, Pierre L., 2018. "Boom-and-bust cycles in emerging markets: How important is the exchange rate?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 172-187.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imk:wpaper:224-2024. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sabine Nemitz (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imkhbde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.