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The historical origins of the safe haven status of the Swiss franc:

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  • Ernst Baltensperger
  • Peter Kugler

Abstract

An empirical analysis of international interest rates and of the behavior of the exchange rate of the Swiss franc since 1850 leads to the conclusion that World War I marks the origin of the strong currency and safe haven status of the Swiss franc. Before World War I, interest rates point to a weakness of the Swiss currency against the pound, the guilder and French franc (from 1881 to 1913) that is shared with the German mark. Thereafter, we see the pattern of the Swiss interest rate island develop and become especially pronounced during the Bretton Woods years. Deviations from metallic parities confirm these findings. For the period after World War I, we establish a strong and stable real and nominal trend appreciation against the pound and the dollar that reflects, to a sizeable extent, inflation differentials.

Suggested Citation

  • Ernst Baltensperger & Peter Kugler, 2016. "The historical origins of the safe haven status of the Swiss franc:," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 67(02), pages 1-30, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:usg:auswrt:2016:67:02:1-30
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter Kugler, 2011. "Financial Market Integration in Late Medieval Europe: Results from a Threshold Error Correction Model for the Rhinegulden and Basle Pound 1365-1429," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 147(III), pages 337-352, September.
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    4. Matthias Gubler & Christoph Sax, 2019. "The Balassa-Samuelson effect reversed: new evidence from OECD countries," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 155(1), pages 1-21, December.
    5. Bernholz, Peter & Kugler, Peter, 2011. "Financial market integration in the early modern period in Spain: Results from a threshold error correction model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 93-96, February.
    6. Peter Kugler & Beatrice Weder, 2002. "The Puzzle of the Swiss Interest Rate Island: Stylized Facts and a New Interpretation," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 57(01), pages 49-64, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Berhold, Kerstin & Stadtmann, Georg, 2017. "Who put the holes in the Swiss cheese? Currency crisis under appreciation pressure," Discussion Papers 391, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
    2. David R. Haab & Thomas Nitschka, 2020. "Carry trade and forward premium puzzle from the perspective of a safe‐haven currency," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 376-394, May.
    3. Jean-Pierre Danthine & Samuel Danthine, 2018. "On the rewards to international investing: a safe haven currency perspective," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 154(1), pages 1-12, December.
    4. Tille, Cédric, 2017. "The Changing International linkages of Switzerland: An Overview," CEPR Discussion Papers 12176, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Alex Oktay, 2022. "Heterogeneity in the exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices: the Swiss franc appreciation of 2015," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 158(1), pages 1-20, December.
    6. Stefan Gerlach & Peter Kugler, 2018. "Money demand under free banking: Switzerland 1851–1906," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 154(1), pages 1-8, December.
    7. Markus Hertrich, 2022. "Foreign exchange interventions under a minimum exchange rate regime and the Swiss franc," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 450-489, May.
    8. Dr. Fabian Fink & Dr. Lukas Frei & Dr. Oliver Gloede, 2020. "Short-term determinants of bilateral exchange rates: A decomposition model for the Swiss franc," Working Papers 2020-21, Swiss National Bank.
    9. Hertrich, Markus, 2020. "Foreign exchange interventions under a one-sided target zone regime and the Swiss franc," Discussion Papers 21/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    10. Kämpf, Vanessa & Stadtmann, Georg & Zimmermann, Lilli, 2023. "Swiss National Bank: Is the recent loss a threat to monetary policy? A research note," Discussion Papers 429, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
    11. Daniel Kaufmann, 2019. "Nominal stability over two centuries," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 155(1), pages 1-23, December.
    12. Fink, Fabian & Frei, Lukas & Gloede, Oliver, 2022. "Global risk sentiment and the Swiss franc: A time-varying daily factor decomposition model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    13. Yang, Yan-Hong & Shao, Ying-Hui & Shao, Hao-Lin & Stanley, H. Eugene, 2019. "Revisiting the weak-form efficiency of the EUR/CHF exchange rate market: Evidence from episodes of different Swiss franc regimes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 523(C), pages 734-746.
    14. Peter H. Egger & Johannes Schwarzer & Anirudh Shingal, 2018. "Labour market effects of currency appreciation: The case of Switzerland," RSCAS Working Papers 2018/30, European University Institute.
    15. Mile Bošnjak, 2018. "Swiss Franc from the Croatian Perspective," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 7(3), pages 41-56.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Swiss franc; Safe haven; Swiss interest island; Deviation from metallic parity; Real and nominal appreciation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N23 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - Europe: Pre-1913

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