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Financial Market Integration in Late Medieval Europe: Results from a Threshold Error Correction Model for the Rhinegulden and Basle Pound 1365-1429

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  • Peter Kugler

Abstract

This paper analyzes the integration of the foreign exchange market for the Basle Pound and the Rhinegulden and the market for gold and silver bullion for the period 1365–1429. The application of a threshold error correction model indicates that transaction costs prevent arbitrage when the difference between the gold-silver ratio and the exchange rate is within a 7.4% band, whereas larger deviation exchange rate movements close this gap within one year.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Kugler, 2011. "Financial Market Integration in Late Medieval Europe: Results from a Threshold Error Correction Model for the Rhinegulden and Basle Pound 1365-1429," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 147(III), pages 337-352, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:ses:arsjes:2011-iii-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1997. "Threshold Cointegration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 627-645, August.
    2. Ernst Juerg Weber, 2009. "Pre-industrial Bimetallism: The Index Coin Hypothesis," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 09-12, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    3. Francois R. Velde & Warren E. Weber, 2000. "A Model of Bimetallism," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(6), pages 1210-1234, December.
    4. Canjels, Eugene & Prakash-Canjels, Gauri & Taylor, Alan M., 2004. "Measuring Market Integration: Foreign Exchange Arbitrage and the Gold Standard 1874-1913," CEPR Discussion Papers 4492, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Josef Rosen, 1972. "Prices and Public Finance in Basle, 1360–1535," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 25(1), pages 1-17, February.
    6. Volckart, Oliver & Wolf, Nikolaus, 2006. "Estimating Financial Integration in the Middle Ages: What Can We Learn from a TAR Model?," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 66(01), pages 122-139, March.
    7. Bernholz, Peter & Kugler, Peter, 2011. "Financial market integration in the early modern period in Spain: Results from a threshold error correction model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 93-96, February.
    8. Eugene Canjels & Gauri Prakash-Canjels & Alan M. Taylor, 2004. "Measuring Market Integration: Foreign Exchange Arbitrage and the Gold Standard, 1879-1913," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(4), pages 868-882, November.
    9. Flandreau, Marc R, 2002. ""Water Seeks a Level": Modeling Bimetallic Exchange Rates and the Bimetallic Band," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 491-519, May.
    10. Weber, Ernst Juerg, 1996. ""Imaginary" or "Real" Moneys of Account in Medieval Europe? An Econometric Analysis of the Basle Pound, 1365-1429," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 479-495, October.
    11. Gauri Prakash & Alan M. Taylor, 1997. "Measuring Market Integration: A Model of Arbitrage with an Econometric Application to the Gold Standard, 1879-1913," NBER Working Papers 6073, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ernst Baltensperger & Peter Kugler, 2016. "The historical origins of the safe haven status of the Swiss franc:," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 67(02), pages 1-30, August.
    2. Adrian R. Bell & Chris Brooks & Tony K. Moore, 2017. "Did Purchasing Power Parity Hold in Medieval Europe?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 85(6), pages 682-709, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial market integration; transaction costs; threshold error correction; Basle pound; Rhinegulden;

    JEL classification:

    • N23 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - Europe: Pre-1913

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