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Global value chains and the Phillips curve: A challenge for monetary policy

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  • Florio, Anna
  • Siena, Daniele
  • Zago, Riccardo

Abstract

This paper studies how participation and position in Global Value Chains (GVCs) affect the slope of the Phillips Curve (PC) and, consequently, the ability of monetary policy to control inflation. Using data from the European Monetary Union (EMU) and value added measures of GVCs, we show that, beyond the role of trade openness, higher participation leads to a flatter PC. This evidence is consistent with the theoretical literature emphasising how globalisation can reduce the sensitivity of prices to unemployment due to stronger strategic complementarities, to higher market power and to imperfect exchange rate pass-through. On the other hand, the role of GVC position is not statistically significant.

Suggested Citation

  • Florio, Anna & Siena, Daniele & Zago, Riccardo, 2025. "Global value chains and the Phillips curve: A challenge for monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:174:y:2025:i:c:s0014292125000169
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.104966
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Global value chains; Phillips curve; Price stickiness; Variable markups;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

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