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Does the Phillips curve still exist?

Author

Listed:
  • Clémence Berson
  • Louis de Charsonville
  • Pavel Diev
  • Violaine Faubert
  • Laurent Ferrara
  • Sophie Guilloux-Nefussi
  • Yannick Kalantzis
  • Antoine Lalliard
  • Julien Matheron
  • Matteo Mogliani

Abstract

Estimates from the Banque de France show that the slope of the Phillips curve in the euro area has remained weak but stable and significantly different from zero since the crisis. In the G7 countries, the coefficient of past inflation has become relatively insignificant since the 1980s,suggesting a shift towards a so-called “non-accelerating” curve. Global demand conditions are captured by import prices, including oil prices. The persistence of a negative output gap and the fall in oil prices largely explain the low level of inflation in the euro area since 2014.However, other factors such as weak wage dynamics or even the risk of an unanchoring of inflation expectations may have played out, the latter risk having called for a strong monetary policy response.

Suggested Citation

  • Clémence Berson & Louis de Charsonville & Pavel Diev & Violaine Faubert & Laurent Ferrara & Sophie Guilloux-Nefussi & Yannick Kalantzis & Antoine Lalliard & Julien Matheron & Matteo Mogliani, 2018. "Does the Phillips curve still exist?," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 56, february.
    • Handle: RePEc:bfr:rueban:2018:56
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Thibault Lemaire, 2020. "Phillips in A Revolution: Unemployment and Prices in Early 21st Century Egypt," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-03948605, HAL.
    2. Siena Daniele, & Zago Riccardo., 2021. "Job Polarization and the Flattening of the Price Phillips Curve," Working papers 819, Banque de France.
    3. Hadrien Camatte & Guillaume Daudin & Violaine Faubert & Antoine Lalliard & Christine Rifflart, 2021. "Global value chains and the transmission of exchange rate shocks to consumer prices," Working Papers hal-03374355, HAL.
    4. Koester, Gerrit & Lis, Eliza & Nickel, Christiane & Osbat, Chiara & Smets, Frank, 2021. "Understanding low inflation in the euro area from 2013 to 2019: cyclical and structural drivers," Occasional Paper Series 280, European Central Bank.

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